Omkar Dattatray
By all accounts and indications as well as forecasts the five state assembly polls at the end of year 2023 are being seen as the semi-final for the general elections of 2024.Thus both the main political parties of BJP and opposition congress are giving much importance and stress on these elections as the party which will fare well in the assembly polls will surely make it in the Lok Sabha elections of early 2024.Thus the political parties in run up to the polls are busy in campaigning in a big way and they do not like to leave any opportunity to win these significant assembly polls as the way to Delhi throne is through the assembly polls .The political parties without any exception use un parliamentary language against each other and are stooping very low forgetting discipline and decorum and they use vitriolic language and do not shy to call nicknames .The main opposition party the congress is all set for assembly polls-semi-finals ahead of 2024 with guarantees ,caste census demand .Understanding that the assembly polls could be the game -changer for 2024 Lok Sabha polls contest ,the congress has hit the ground running in the poll bound states and is firming up its strategy with poll guarantees and demand for a caste census being the main poll plank .With the upcoming assembly polls being seen as a semi-final before the 2024 general elections ,the congress is set to go all-out to win the high -stakes contest in the five states which will not only be the test of the party’s prowess at the hustings but also decide its bargaining capacity within the INDI A bloc .The grand old party is looking to retain power in Rajasthan ,and Chhattisgarh ,while seeking to come to power in other three states going to polls-Madhya Pradesh ,Telangana and Mizoram .With the five poll bound states having a total of 83 Lok sabha seats is bound to have some definite bearing on the parliamentary elections .However in 2019 ,the congress had won assembly polls in Rajasthan ,MP ,and Chhattisgarh but had dismal showing in the Lok sabha elections a few months later .But this may not repeat again in 2024. There is the tradition and practice in Rajasthan assembly elections that always the incumbent party is defeated. Reacting to the announcement of the polls ,congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said the party will go to people with strength and outlined public welfare ,social justice and progressive development as its guarantee .Addressing the crucial CWC meeting ,Kharge called for unity and discipline ahead of polls .Kharge also underlined the need for an effective strategy for assembly polls in the five states .He said there is renewed enthusiasm among cadre after decisive victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka ,while stressing the need to put in all our might to win in the five states .Congress leadership is confident of a good showing in the polls but is also aware of the daunting challenges that lie in the run up to the elections in the Hindi heartland states especially Rajasthan .Exuding confidence about a good showing ,Rahul Gandhi had said late last month that as of now the congress is certainly winning MP ,and Chhattisgarh ,probably winning Telangana and there is very close contest in Rajasthan which the congress believes it will emerge victorious in .Political Pundits say the congress seems to be facing a daunting task in Rajasthan where the revolving door trend has reigned for nearly three decades .In Chhattisgarh and MP ,the congress seems to be on a better wicket .It is hoping to return to power in Chhattisgarh on the back of welfare schemes for the poor while in MP it is eying a return to the helm after its government was toppled in 2020.The BJP’s poll strategy has a centralized twist. The ECI has declared its schedule for the assembly polls to be held this month in five states Chhattisgarh ,MP ,Rajasthan ,Telangana and Mizoram .India’s ruling BJP has announced its candidates for majority of the seats up to the contest and some of the names have taken political observers by surprise .That is because the party has decided to send high-profile central leaders to state level battlefields .This is unusual ,if not rare .In Rajasthan as many as seven MP’s have named as contenders .In MP too ,the BJP has listed seven MP’s (three union ministers included) as the state legislators .And other four MP’s will contest polls in Chhattisgarh .Presumably ,these calls follow a seat -wise electoral calculus aimed at helping the party to ground in zones of past weakness .It also seems in line with a practice that has held it in good stead ,even set it apart .A hard focus on meritocracy .Incumbents cannot take their roles for granted with the top looking closely at how they perform .On the whole ,however ,it can be interpreted as yet another sign of low centralized the BJP now is -not just in wielding power ,but also in its appeal among voters .Both of course are related .Today ,much revolves around PM Modi ,who it is clear is leading BJP campaigns in -poll bound states .Notably ,his speeches so far have made no mention of MP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan ,a possible hint of the party fighting without a CM face .It may also explain the presence in the fray of top-bracket leaders from New Delhi .Given Modi’s popularity ,this may be a way to neutralize anti-incumbency .To retain power ,Chouhan may have to pull off a dramatic win, and that too one he could plausibly claim credit for-space for which may shrink fast. In Rajasthan ,it is even clearer that the BJP may not rely on former CM Vasundhara Raje to defeat the states ruling congress party .Her loyalists reportedly struggled -and some failed -to make BJP contestants lists .If such treatment pushes her to fortify her authority or go into open rebellion mode,it could spell trouble for the BJP .But then again ,the BJP learnt even in Karnataka that it was not very resilient on the the Lingayat vote brought in by B.S Yudiyurappa ,but has its own influence .It lost power in the state this year to a resurgent congress party ,but largely held its vote share .No doubt ,political rivals of the BJP will miss no chance to flag ”Modi dependency” as a sign of its weakness .Yet ,while concentration risk may apply at times to political outcomes .,there is scarce evidence so far of a dip in Modi’s sway over voters .Assembly elections have begun on November 7 as voting in Mizoram and Chhattisgarh has begun..In fact the polls have begun in the five states and it is a deeply contest between the BJP and congress and both the party’s are working hard to defeat the other party and win the elections .Though the five state assembly polls are the semi-finals for the 2024 general polls ,but the outcome of these elections will be clear December 3 when the results will be declared .However by all indications it can be arguably said that these state assembly polls are in fact the semi-finals for 2024 Lok Sabha elections and thus both the BJP and congress are attaching much importance to these polls which definitely will influence the general elections .Nothing can be predicted definitely but all will be clear on December 3,when the results will be declared.
(The author is a columnist, social and KP activist).
