The withdrawal of American and allied forces and emergence of Indian presence in Afghanistan has changed the geo-political scenario in the region. The turning point came by the end of 2014. A political transition to a post-Karzai period had begun after a difficult election process and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) started withdrawing marking the end of the 13-year-long ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’, transferring primary responsibility for security to the Afghan Army and police forces. Neither has been a smooth transition despite the fact that the timelines for both transitions were known for the last five years. This poses questions about the stability of these transitions and the interests and role of the key external actors. India has played a significant role in Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction committing and delivering upwards of $2 billion distributed between humanitarian assistance, rebuilding infrastructure and human resource development. In surveys year after year, India has been described as “the most-friendly country.” This was possible because of a special trust that developed earlier on with President Hamid Karzai and his colleagues about the shared vision of Afghanistan emerging as an independent, sovereign, stable, plural and moderate country, focussed on development and determined to turn its back on decades of conflict which had consumed an entire generation. The US too was bought into the vision in the early years but after involvement in the Iraq war, Washington had neither the bandwidth nor the political commitment to stay in the course. This was the period the emergence of Taliban and ISIS became prominent and India remained always a target for them on the other hand Afghanistan now wants to cling to its time tested friend India for stability and a military buildup. The Afghan rulers want to bolster their ethnically divided army with big ticket military hardware from India and Russia. Having realised the importance of China other than India, the new Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, visited China for crucial talks. He knows the importance of neighbouring states, specifically Pakistan, and within two weeks is expected to visit the country. India needs to recalibrate its strategy to deal with a range of options from these unfolding scenarios. India has assured the Afghan rulers that it will address the anxiety of the post-withdrawal situation.
