Kalyani Shankar
Just a week before the Modi Government competes its 100 days, by-election results have come as a jolt to the BJP. The saffron party, which witnessed a spectacular victory in the Lok Sabha poll, has faced a setback already. No doubt by-elections are fought and won mostly on local factors, but the results have certainly punctured the feel-good factor of the BJP and given a ray of hope to the opposition.
The results of the recent by-election to 18 Assembly seats across four States, including Bihar, were to say the least disappointing for the BJP. Of the 18 seats the party won seven and its ally Shiromani Akali Dal one, while the Congress and its allies bagged 10. The Congress won the key seats like Bellary in Karnataka and Patiala in Punjab and also managed to wrest one seat from Madhya Pradesh.
The results of Bihar could be particularly galling for the BJP because much had been made of the parting of ways between the JD(U) and the BJP in the Lok Sabha election. Mr Narendra Modi’s two arch-rivals, Nitish Kumar of JD(U) and Lalu Prasad of RJD, won six out of 10 Assembly seats on their stride in Bihar where the BJP aims to form the Government after the next Assembly poll. The by-election was seen as a litmus test for the BJP as well as the RJD and JD(U), which came together soon after the Lok Sabha result came out in May.
The jolt is all the more severe after the recent BJP defeat in Uttarakhand where the Congress won all the three seats in Assembly by-election and also in nine of the 11 zila parishad chairman election. Is there a pattern as the BJP failed to hold on to the vote-share it had in the Lok Sabha election in several of these seats? Is the BJP complacent after its stunning victory in the Lok Sabha poll? The BJP has to take these as a warning signal and pull up its socks. The Uttar Pradesh by-election is not far away. The State unit must work hard to keep the momentum as the State gave unprecedented seats to the BJP in Lok Sabha poll.
The BJP explains that the by-election result should not be confused with the Lok Sabha or the Assembly polls. The BJP leaders in Karnataka and Bihar were quick to blame the losses on local factors and the failure of the State party units, stressing that the defeats were no reflection on Mr Modi’s leadership. The party must ensure that the State leaders are on their toes. The results have sent some clear signals, which should be read by the political class. The first is that perhaps the BJP, after its massive victory, has become complacent and had taken the electorate for granted.
After the BJP’s spectacular show in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the frenzy created during the general election has died down. The stark drop in vote-share also suggests this. This was only to be expected as the reason for the frenzy has disappeared from the scene. The mood of the electorate was anti-Congress, which is defeated now.
There is a question mark about the return of single-party dominance as the electorate has kept the opposition alive, keeping its options open. These by-election results may open up new possibilities at the national level for new permutations and combinations. The results are likely to provide a shot in the arm to a largely-moribund opposition and give confidence that it could defeat the Modi factor by ensuring anti-BJP votes are not split. It was purely out of desperation that the JD(U) and the RJD has come together to form a viable combination – which proved successful. The success of the secular combine shows that they can hope to succeed in future if they manage an effective coalition. Moreover, the RJD and the JD(U) have charismatic State-level leaders while the BJP lacks this in Bihar, Haryana and Maharashtra. The question is: Whether this unity will continue until the Assembly polls, as there is bound to be ego clashes.
It is too early to say whether the Modi wave is over. The Prime Minister normally doesn’t campaign for the by-elections. The Modi magic would be tested in the Assembly elections to Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir.
BJP allies like the Shiv Sena are flexing muscle after the setback. The Sena mouthpiece, Saamna, in an editorial, has said that the party cannot depend on only Modi effect any more. The jibe is seen as a pressure tactic to get back at the BJP, which has been putting pressure on the ally to part with more number of seats.
For now, the BJP should realise that it has to bring back the feel-good factor, which has been punctured, if it wants to do well in the Assembly polls. The opposition too should understand it has a long way to go. Modi’s honeymoon continues despite the setback.