Omkar Nath Koul
Now that the Lok Sabha election of the biggest democracy of the world have been announced. There is much fervor and enthusiasm among the people ,but there is not such an intense fervor among the political parties as the general election 2024 is unfortunately turning to be a one-sided affair and there is thus no or little fervor about the elections among the political parties .Perhaps Prime minister Narendra Modi is absolutely right when he said that there is no challenge of election as the INDIA opposition bloc is a divided house as there is no unity of direction and unity of purpose in the opposition parties and some of its constituents are still unable to announce seat sharing and it seems that the bridegroom of the election Barat has not been announced and thus there is much question mark about the fight of election 2024.In such a situation it seems that that 2024 Lok Sabha election may turn out to be a one-sided affair and thus this election will be devoid of sheen ,interest and it may be uninteresting as the opposition alliance is very weak and divided and so it can hardly take on the formidable BJP in the general elections .The fighting of any election is generally a two party or multi-party affair but the 2024 elections are turning into a one party affair and thus the general election 2024 seems to be devoid of interest as this may not be an interesting phenomena and thus political parties and the public do not attach much interest in the general election 2024 as the PM has said in an election rally that this time the results of the general election has come out before the actual fight and counting of votes on 4 June 2024.This is not a good augury for the successful working of a dynamic and vibrant democracy which India has the distinction of being .As India gears up for general elections in 2024,the ruling BJP of the prime minister Narendra Modi sits comfortably in a pole position as the opposition struggles to play catch up .Now that the voters in five states have delivered their judgments in a clutch of recently concluded assembly elections ,the eyes of 1.4 billion Indians and those observing from abroad -turn to the country’s general elections announced a day .The results of December 3 state polls provided a big boost to BJP of prime minister Narendra Modi.BJP swept elections in the Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh ,MP, and Rajasthan. The lone victory for the opposition Indian national congress also known as congress party figured prominently in the Mizoram battle .These results confirm what is already common knowledge as far as 2024 parliamentary elections are concerned ,the BJP remains firmly in pole position .This advantage is principally driven by Modi’s enduring popularity .According to Morning Consult ,which tracks the weekly approval ratings of more than twenty democratically elected world leaders ,78 percent of Indian’s surveyed in late November approved of Modi’s job performance .Domestic opinion polls confirm that Modi’s popularity remains intact and that this continues to fuel his party’s dominance. The biannual Mood of the Nation Poll from India Today has consistently shown ,including as recently August 2023 ,that the BJP led NDA would handily capture a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha ,even if its majority reduces compared to its 2019 tally when it notched 353 seats .However ,elections are popular demonstrations of the will of the electorate ,they are not preordained coronations .Past experience -not least the previous NDA government’s surprise upset at the hands of the congress party -led by UPA in 2004 -suggest that Indian voters do not thoughtlessly conform du jour .As the road to 2024 begins ,five issues are worth watching ,the waning predictive power of state elections ,the challenges of opposition coordination ,the battle for backward castes ,the arms race for competitive welfarism ,and the emergence of foreign policy as a mass issue. The first issue to keep in mind is the limited predictive power of the recent state assembly polls. While it would be churlish to deny the BJP its celebration ,it would at the same time be shortsighted for the party to believe that these results mechanically predict how voters in these five states will behave in the general elections .In 2014 and 2019 ,the BJP was aided in its quest to attain a single party majority in parliament by fragmented opposition and same will be the case in 2024 general elections as the INDIA alliance bloc is divided and it fails to have unity which is so essential for fighting an election .In such a political situation ,there is free for all in the BJP camp to win the general elections .It may be a smooth affair for the BJP to fight the general elections given the fact that the opposition is a divided house and thus opposition is not a challenge for the BJP led NDA .The BJP was facing not a unified opposition but several opposition parties competing each other than fighting the BJP .The inevitable will be fracturing of the opposition vote .The opposition ,after two successive electoral defeats in parliament ,seems determined to learn from the past failures. The third factor to consider in the battle over the allegiance of the Other Backward Classes-OBC ,the largest single voter bloc in India ,likely accounting for more than 40 % of the population .The electoral transformation of the BJP under Modi owes its success ,in large measure to the party’s ability to attract OBC’s into its fold -snatching key voters from the congress party and from so called Mandal parties in northern India ,which mobilized on the basis of empowering backward castes .The fourth factor shaping the 2024 fight is the impact of welfare schemes on voting behavior .This welfare push has been coupled with the governments embrace of direct cash transfer ,which have funneled government benefits directly to the bank accounts of the beneficiaries .A final factor informing the 2024 elections is harder to pin down -India’s evolving role in the world .As the dates and schedule of general elections has been announced ,the incumbent BJP undeniably maintains the upper hand .It is home to India’s most popular leader ,most formidable political organization and most savvy marketing apparatus .In short it can be opined that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections may turn to be a one sided affair without there be any tough challenge for the BJP and this may turn the election wave in favor of the BJP.
(The author is a columnist, social and KP activist).
