The revised meteorological projection should force the government to step up crisis management efforts and if the forecast is correct, it will be only the second case of poor monsoon in 28 years. For two grain producers-Haryana and Punjab-it would be a dry run if there is deficient rain. With monsoon delayed by five days the IMD forecast is gloomy and if one goes by private Skymet forecast the predictions are normal. Whom to believe Govt or private forecaster? Food makes up half of India’s consumer price index, a far higher than in richer countries. The dependence on rain is so much that just few days delay presses panic button with dreadful drought staring at you. Dependence on rains makes farmers life more miserable. Even the growth projections, consumption demand, investment cycle all deepened on good monsoon and a bountiful agriculture. Managing inflationary expectations is a complicated task, this is evident from the political price paid by UPA II during the Lok Sabha elections. Modi understood this economics after the first shock when he took over the rein of the government and kept the prices under check. But after the completion of one year the situation on the price front does not seem easy. Over deficit, early, untimely monsoon has been a disaster call for farmers. The drought predictions have driven prices upwards. Last year the rain deficit was 17 per cent and this year it is estimated at 20 per cent , but the biggest cushioning effect could be buffer food grain stocks the country holds and any lowering of global prices in grains and cereals would facilitate imports to impact the deficiencies in the market thus keeping economic cycle going on. The chronic monsoon deficiencies could be seen as the worst symptoms of a larger monsoon cycle which has been on the downswing for some time. Retail inflation has shown upward trend in pulses, fruit and vegetable prices. The challenge for Modi Govt is to create a sense of security among those likely to be hit hardest.
