Whatever may be the controversy over the conduct of Assembly elections and the budget presentation one thing is certain that the outcome of such an exercise surely may not alter by much the arithmetic in the Rajya Sabha this year, but the results could impact the presidential elections scheduled for July. Since the Electoral College to elect the President comprises MLAs from all 29 states and two Union Territories (Delhi and Puducherry) besides MPs from both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, the outcome of polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur may tilt the balance in a close contest. Uttar Pradesh with 403 MLAs, will obviously play a major role. The post-poll parties’ strength in states will, however, not affect the Vice-Presidential election in August as its electoral college comprises only MPs from both the Houses of Parliament. Ramifications of the UP verdict will be felt clearly in 2018 when ten seats from the state will become vacant in the Rajya Sabha due to retirement of members. It is then that the NDA could expect to make substantial gains out of the 68 seats which will be up for grabs in the Upper House. Fifty-eight of the 68 vacancies will be reported in April 2018. It includes 10 from UP and one from Uttarakhand. Manipur and Punjab won’t report any vacancy during the current NDA phase till May 2019. Goa is the only one among the five states going to polls which will report a vacancy in the Rajya Sabha this year. The lone RS seat from the state will be vacant on 28th July. The year will see nine more vacancies in August – three from Gujarat and six from West Bengal. But, these vacancies will not have much of an effect on the current composition of the Upper House. Though the NDA’s tally (74) is, at present, marginally higher than the UPA (71), the ruling alliance is still far from the majority mark of 123 – crucial for getting key legislations passed in the Upper House. The NDA gained a few seats in the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha last year, but it will have to wait till April 2018 to gain a substantial number of seats. The President nominates members for the Rajya Sabha on the government’s recommendation. Though the nominated members are not bound by the whip of the ruling party, they generally vote alongside the treasury bench in the Upper House.
