It has always been seen that ahead of winter, terror activities get heightened and the reasons are obvious as higher reaches get covered with snow and passage to India becomes difficult for Pak-supported terrorists. It has seen militancy peaking in September as the number of incidents fall in the winter, the threat of Fidayeen attacks and bomb blasts remains on high. Adding to threat perception is the festival season ahead. India has raised the stakes, we have raised the cost for Pakistan. There is a possibility of this (surgical strikes) becoming an ‘acceptable norm’. For Pakistan, terrorist strikes or covert operations were a low-risk, low-cost option all along. India has set a precedent. There have been three to four terrorist attacks after the operations. Making it clear that terrorists have taken shelter within the Kashmir Valley and they have sympathisers support to carry attacks as and when they want. The 56-hour siege and encounter at JKEDI, Pampore reminds that threat of Fidayeen attacks is looming further. Though there is no direct or indirect link to Fidayeen attacks and surgical operations but it is clear that the surgical strike has not been a cost high enough to stop terrorism. Some claim that the Uri surgical strike has completely changed the balance of power between India and Pakistan. This, once again, will be tested when there is another terror strike that produces a body count high enough for public opinion to be outraged. As many have pointed out, cross-border LoC raids have often happened before — including after Indian soldiers were beheaded in 2011, such raids used to be routine between the late ’90s and 2003, when the two countries agreed to a ceasefire. The threat of unaffordable escalation between nuclear-armed powers remains very high. The government understands this, and that is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been asking people to tone down the chest-thumping. India remains exposed to a very high risk of terrorism, and those celebrating the surgical strike as a victory of sorts should reconsider it.
