Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
As a ceasefire of sorts takes hold in Syria, Russia seems to be notching up zero sum victories, both in Syria and Ukraine. These victories may well shift our notion of what counts as ‘victory’ in this day and age, but in many ways they are classic Soviet-style victories of the second world war – brutal scorched earth wars with no quarter given or asked for. However, they bring in a new dimension of deliberate calculation and brutal political foresight, seldom seen since Joseph Stalin. Cumulatively taken, this may be a case of back-to-the-future.
Most observers were right – Russia was being ground to a halt and getting militarily bogged down in Ukraine. What they failed to see was that there was a political game afoot in addition to the military angle. When the irrecoverably corrupt new Kiev administration was sworn in around two years ago, it became clear that Ukraine’s leaders were not going to be able to solve any of its problems. The Prime Minister was (and remains) deeply indebted to crony capitalists – specifically Victor Pinchuk, a man whose fortune is built on trading with Russia. President Petro Poroshenko is a crony capitalist; his business interests run so deep through Ukraine that ‘reforms’ would mean a vast reduction, if not the end, of his fortune. Perhaps not surprisingly then all the starry-eyed reformers of the Maidan movement are quitting the Government like rats of a sinking ship.
The problem has been Ukraine’s deep ties to Russia. Russia was and remains Ukraine’s biggest trading partner in spite of the ongoing war. To simplify a complex picture – Western ‘Ukrainian’ Ukraine is largely agricultural, and contributes little to the economy. Eastern ‘Russian’ Ukraine comprises the heavily industrialised Donbass whose market is almost entirely the former Soviet Union.
The problem with going in for the EU association deal was that it would have, in all likelihood, enabled fabulous new opportunities for Ukraine’s crony capitalists, but also led to horrendous losses for other crony capitalists, depending on the political dispensation. In effect while the Euro Maidan was very much a ethno-nationalist confrontation between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, it was more a rift between competing crony capitalists. Realising this, the new Ukrainian Government went in for a participatory policy of including all willing crony capitalists in the Government.
This would seem familiar to most Indians used to coalition politics and the resultant policy inertia witnessed over the last 30 years. These crony capitalists function much like the local thakur would in Bihar or Uttar Pradesh: They can ensure voting goes a certain way, given the number of people dependent on the industries they run, plus the sheer muscle power of thugs they employ.
To give an Indian analogy, this was like bringing the Shiv Sena and Samajwadi Party into the same Government. In a way it was good in that it incentivised the new Government to keep the country together and ensure a stable transfer of votes. But it also meant that many of the oligarchs had deep ties with Russia which could be used as leverage. Effectively, the economy, already in dire straits, was paralysed.
The slew of reforms and orders countermanding those reforms within a matter of hours, not days, in blatant displays of crony capitalism has made Patna look like a Scandinavian city compared to Kiev, when it comes to transparency and effective governance.
But, perhaps, what the people did not realise was that Russia also played this game with ease. It has used the levers it holds among Ukrainian oligarchs to make what was an already desperate situation far worse. Today, the Prime Minister and President are at each others throats, and all signs point to another ‘peoples revolution’ that will end the prevailing consensus.
Fundamentally, the end of the consensus will involve a takeover by the most rabidly Russophobic elements in Ukraine. This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, first expressed by President Vladimir Putin during the annexation of Crimea. Inevitably, the alienation that will follow will result either in another round of Russian intervention (direct or indirect), with either a severe weakening or increasing ruthlessness of the Ukrainian forces fighting in Donbass.
It is hard to say if Russian actions have been deliberate leading up to this end goal without entering the realm of conspiracy theory. Irrespective, it seems Russia is willing to exploit every weakness it can and will either tame Ukraine or assist the Ukrainians in destroying it.
This strategic thinking is much in evidence in Syria as well. Earlier, this author had discussed why second and third world warfare tend to be far more brutal than what modern day first world TV audiences can absorb. Russia’s response though has been that it doesn’t give a damn for western TV audiences.
The movement of a Tu-214R electronic intelligence plane to better pinpoint targets should not be seen as Russian willingness to reduce the severity and intensity of its air campaign. Far from it – without the money for the kind of precision bombs in the numbers that the West uses, the deadly combination of accurate intelligence, dumb bombs and ruthless terrorists intent on using civilian shields will only mean a drastic increase in casualties from here on. This will be reminiscent of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s desperate last stand at Mullaitivu beach in March 2009.
Already Russian actions in Syria have left Turkey checkmated and looking stupid. Whatever little chance of humanitarian intervention or safe zones may have existed has now evaporated. The current ceasefire agreed to between the US and Russia is only a re-affirmation of US, Nato and Turkish impotence, and that all humanitarian relief is dependent on Russia and Russia only. Not unsurprisingly there has been a spike in stories of Russian attacks on opposition-held hospitals.
