Kalyani Shankar
The results of the Assembly elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir prove that the BJP continues to be on the rise and has eclipsed other national parties in the country. The two Assembly verdicts are in contrast, though, as Jharkhand has chosen stability while Jammu and Kashmir has given a hung verdict. This in itself shows the complexity of the BJP’s rise.
Clearly, the ‘Modi effect’ is continuing, since the BJP came to power at the Centre with a landslide victory. Except a hiccup in a few by-elections, the party has gone on to conquer Haryana and formed the Government in Maharashtra. With its ambitious Mission 44+ for Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has emerged as the king-maker in that State, improving its position vastly. It has also added Jharkhand to its kitty.
Meanwhile, the Opposition space is shrinking fast and national parties are losing their strength. A weak Opposition is not good for democracy. Unless the Opposition does something to correct itself, it will lose further to the BJP.
The core theme of the Opposition campaign was ‘secular versus communal’. However, the country’s polity seems to be changing and the people are not buying this theme. They prefer Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promises of development.
For now, the BJP has replaced the 130-year-old Congress as the pre-eminent force in Indian politics. The Congress now runs the risk of being replaced by regional parties as the principal Opposition in Parliament. It is also being relegated to third and fourth places in most States – its poor performances in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu are now echoing Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand.
It is a sad commentary that even six months after the Lok Sabha poll losses, there is no sign of Congress revival. The party is in limbo, the leadership is still trying to figure out what went wrong, and demoralised workers are looking for greener pastures elsewhere. The Congress needs to become a grass root organisation again, it needs assertive and capable State leaders. This can’t happen in a day.
The Congress also has to change its tactics in dealing with the BJP. The ‘secularism versus communalism’ debate is not clicking anymore. The Congress needs to pander to the middle class, which is becoming more powerful and decisive. The party’s biggest challenge is to keep its flock together and prepare for the next round of elections in Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The Congress suffered in Jharkhand because it did not align with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, which it now admits was mistake. The way forward is to identify powerful allies in different States and stitch pre-poll alliances, as it still needs the arithmetic, as opposed to the chemistry, for success.
The message for the re-grouped Janata parivar is also clear: Its constituents also have to do much more to challenge the BJP. While the RJD and the JD(U) in Bihar were remarkably successful in the by-election, the Jharkhand result shows that much more needs to be done. But the Janata parivar has taken it in its stride.
It says that it is a work-in-progress. It functioned well in Parliament and successfully stalled business, particularly in the Upper House where the BJP is in a minority. The RJD-JD(U) alliance has set the stage for the big fight of 2015: The Bihar Assembly election.
The fight in future elections will be between the BJP and the regional parties. Clearly, the regional parties will play a bigger role in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls than in the Lok Sabha election.
While the BJP was able to win handsomely in Jammu, in Kashmir valley it got a zero, with the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party dominating. Of the eight States that will see Assembly polls between now and 2017, the BJP has already started working on the ground, with its ambitious roadmap, to challenge the regional parties. BJP chief Amit Shah is eyeing the southern States, West Bengal and Assam.
For now, the party’s priority is to push aside the Congress as the decisive ‘outside party’ in the States. The saffron party is hoping to consolidate its gains of the past seven months and enlarge its national footprint. How far it will succeed, depends on how well the Opposition challenges it.
