Ravinder Jalali
Mehbooba Mufti is now the 13th and the first woman Chief Minister of J and K State heading the Coalition Government of BJP and PDP alliance. She has been sworn on 4th April after a three months political uncertainty in the State following the death of Mufti Mohd Syed , her father after which the Governor’s rule was imposed and when all the parties including Mehbooba`s declined to claim to form the Govt. But I had made it clear in earlier write ups that she will step in her father’s shoes as Chief Minister when some political Pundits and analysts were apprehensive of the same. The reason behind was that it was almost full term of five years remaining behind as only 10 months of the term had expired. In other states it is generally five years as total term but here in our State it is six years as is the practice with the our State that whenever any legislation is favourable to them they will implement it and when it is not to their person then they will invoke Article 370 to stop it for implementing. The swearing in ceremony was attended by Central Ministers including Dr. Jitendra Singh and former chief ministers and other dignitaries. The oath of secrecy was administered by the Governor N.N Vohra. Congress did not attend the swearing ceremony, terming it an unholy alliance.
The question is why she did not stake to claim the Govt. can be understood because of the emotional reasons as her father had died and was in no hurry. Secondly I presume that everything was not alright in the party as other party colleagues may not have been interested in continuing the alliance in view of the party position in Kashmir. What she gained from waiting for more than around three months? She wanted to gauge the mood of her party and its members and the MPs who were not in alignment with her on formation of the government for the fear that it may invite the wrath of Valley.
Mehbooba repeatedly said that she wanted assurances from the Central Govt. Does it construe that there was any mistrust and coalition Govt. has failed and not delivered results during the time of her father? She says that she needs to have the goodwill as enjoyed by his father and at the same time she admits that there was no problem regarding the funds from the Centre. PDP has been offered the post of CM for full term of six years. Agenda of Alliance is already towards Kashmir which has become adverse for Jammu region as well as for BJP in Jammu. When she met Narinder Modi in New Delhi and intended to make Prime Minister a commitment in front of the press for her face saving but that did not materialise. When the BJP also toughened the stand and wanted equal partnership in the Govt. The PDP also became less rigid and thus paved the way for the Govt. formation.
Another problem she had to face that who will look after, rather strengthen, the party in J and K in the absence of her when she will be pre-occupied with the administration and the governance of the State. She needs some one who is trusted and capable of keeping the flock together in the turbulent days ahead. More over she will be interested in keeping the control of the party with in her own family that is why she is trying to rope her brother into it. The only thing is to wait and watch.
PDP was also worried on account of facing the electorate in case of fresh elections which no body wanted. The fact of the matter is the PDP may face the wrath of people of Valley for wrapping up with BJP, as the people of Valley voted in large numbers in favour of PDP to keep BJP out of power. The mood at the time of last Assembly election was that BJP was contesting many seats from the Valley and had their been boycott call from separatists in valley, there seems to have been possible for BJP to win some seats in Kashmir ,which would have helped BJP to form a Govt of their own in J and K.
Need less to mention here that the birth of PDP has originated from womb of militancy and is Valley based party who have voted PDP on the directions of the separatists to keep BJP out of power. At the same time she can not afford to loose the chance of becoming Chief Minister and forming the Govt. which is ready and is waiting for crowning only otherwise they had to face the electorate afresh which seems to be full of uncertainties as the saying goes “A bird in hand is worth two in the bush”.
It is a challenging task for the Madam to pull on with the Coalition Govt. in view of the expectation from her from all the three regions. At the same time we must appreciate her decision to go head with the coalition as decided by his father and act on the Agenda of Alliance as framed and agreed upon by her father and BJP, though there were many provocations from the vested interests like NC and Congress to sabotage the formation of Govt. and to keep the BJP out of power but we must accept maturity of Mehbooba to go along with the BJP as to respect the verdict of the people of J and K who voted BJP in Jammu and PDP in Kashmir.
In the absence of her father it will not be easy for her to move smoothly in new assignment as she has to balance between her allied partner BJP and the local Kashmiri separatists who are behind her. The position of PDP was different at the time of her father but now the position is different. Tariq Karra, MP from Srinagar is not happy with the set of new ministers as is clear from his conspicuous absence from the swearing in ceremony.
Another point is that after becoming the Chief Minister, she has to contest Legislative Assembly elections with in a period of six months which will be an immediate test to check whether her popularity among the home base is intact or eroded. Secondly after resigning from the Lok Sabha seat and fresh election to the Anantnag seat will have to be conducted, this will be surely an acid test for her as well as for her party. Who will contest in her in Parliament election from her vacated seat is also significant. Another point is earlier it was her father who would take care of the government and governance while she would look after the organisation but now she has to manage both the things of her own.
Parliament seat from Anantnag is also a crucial test for Mehbooba to see her acceptability to the people of Kashmir who have voted for her party in the last election.
