Dr.Banarsi Lal, Dr.Shahid Ahamad
Climate change is also likely to significantly alter the dynamics of extreme events such as tropical cyclones, storms surges and extreme rainfall events; possibly increasing their frequency and intensity. It is estimated that low lying regions, including small islands, will face the highest exposure to rising sea levels, which further will increase the risk of floods bringing more cultivable area under the risk of submergence and degradation. Due to excessive rainfall hilly areas are prone to land sliding followed by flash floods in the rivers.
A number of environmental, social and economic factors contribute to the differential vulnerability of diverse farming systems. Rainfed areas, in particular, having complex cropping systems operating under fragile ecological conditions, constitute about 60 % of net cultivated area. Poverty levels and high population density are other important factors that increase the vulnerability of the Indian agricultural system to climate change. Multiple stresses on natural resources such as soil erosion, salinisation of irrigated lands, degradation of pastures, water pollution and overexploitation of forest stocks contribute to low resilience in the Indian farming systems. As most of the agricultural production takes place in rural areas by engaging people from the marginalized sections of the society, the crop management capacity of the farmers during climatic extremities is limited. Crop management response of the Indian farmers to natural shocks such as droughts are often of distress through sale or mortgage of farm assets like livestock or land. Constraint in accessing institutional or formal financial mechanisms for agricultural credit is another important factor that contributes to high vulnerability of the sector. Similarly, agricultural markets and food supply chains in India are mainly in the unorganized sector which is often dominated by intermediaries thereby depriving the farmers of their due remuneration. Post-harvest losses due to inadequate storage and transport infrastructure, lack of market information and intelligence reduce the profitability of farming systems. Although there are mechanisms to provide adequate information access on weather and crop management, they often operate on a delayed mode and lack feedback mechanism.The combination of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity makes enhancing resilience in the Indian agriculture and allied sectors a challenging task.
Climate change alters the natural balance of local and global ecosystems and infringes on human settlements. It is expected that vulnerable groups such as poor will face food insecurity, loss of livelihood, hardships due to environmental change and extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, storms, cyclones and land sliding. The overall impact of climate change on our food production systems and economy is expected to be high as the agriculture and its allied sectors still accounts for a large share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment. Although agriculture contribution to GDP is falling, it still accounts for a significant share. For the States like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, the percentage share of agriculture and allied activities in state domestic product is more than 30 per cent. The Indian agriculture now faces the challenge of ensuring food security amidst constraints such as stagnating net sown area, deterioration of land quality, reduction in per capita land availability etc. As a result, agricultural productivity has been witnessing stagnation in recent years. Besides, issues such as competing demand for water in the context of changing demographics and its various end uses, further aggravates the degree of risks in the agriculture sector. These have considerable implications for food and livelihood security and as agriculture production being risk prone, may lead to migration from rural to urban areas. Fostering rapid, sustainable and broad-based growth in agriculture is thus a key priority keeping in mind the overall socio-economic development trajectory of the country, especially in the light of existing vulnerabilities that relate to a shrinking land resource base, additional stresses arising from the non-agricultural sector and issues emerging due to changing climate. This necessitates a strategic approach with a renewed vision and redefined focus.
(The writers are: Dr.Banarsi Lal, Asstt. Professor and Dr.Shahid Ahamad, Assoc. Professor, KVK Reasi (Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology-Jammu).
