The outcome of two-phase Gujarat elections slated on Dec5 and 14, would have bearing not only in Gujarat but is likely to have a strong bearing on states such as Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where elections will be held before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. While there’s no denying that Gujarat’s growth record appears impressive when compared to other states, the share of Gujarat in India’s GDP has remained largely unchanged since the 1980s. This means Gujarat’s high economic base actually predates BJP’s long continuous rule in the state. Similarly, while Gujarat’s share in factory output has increased sharply since the late 1990s, its share in factory jobs has not changed much. Growth mostly occurs in a few capital-intensive industrial sectors with less linkages to the rest of the region’s economy, and productive jobs overall are lagging. This in turn is the basic reason social groups such as the Patidars are restive and discontented. No one today mention about Acche Din which was the riding slogan for BJP during the 2014 parliamentary and assembly elections. Economic factors are indeed responsible for an undercurrent of resentment against the ruling BJP. This explains why Rahul has been able to get under BJP’s skin by questioning the ruling party’s development track record, even as he cannot offer much of an alternative vision beyond farm loan waivers. A thumping win in Gujarat would pave way for other states. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the election in his home state is a battle for prestige, with “development” being his slogan. If the 2012 Gujarat elections where the BJP won for the third successive time under Modi as its Chief Minister was a personal battle for the race for the prime ministerial post, the 2017 Gujarat elections are now of national significance both for Modi and the BJP. A reduction in its numbers could mean that the Modi juggernaut can be challenged and will galvanize opposition forces for the 2019 elections. A poor performance or loss in Gujarat elections could seriously hurt the party’s future prospects as it has made known an ambitious target of winning 150 seats.
