Experts link Valley’s dry spell climate change, forecast mild winter with less snowfall

2024 ringing alarm for Kashmir economy

MASROOR AHMAD

SRINAGAR: Kashmir has been facing a prolonged dry spell for about two month, with minimal chances of significant weather activity until January 20.
New Year eve in Kashmir is normally a time when big snow fills mountains and glaciers are replenished. But this year, most of these resorts and Himalayan and Pirpanjaal mountains across Jammu and Kashmir have little or no snow. The weather is likely to remain dry across Kashmir until January 20.
Experts attribute the issue to a shift in weather patterns, suggesting that the Valley is likely to have a milder winter this year due to the ongoing impact of above -average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The Valley will likely experience more frequent and extended droughts in the future, according to experts, who claimed the indicators of climate change are evident in Jammu and Kashmir.
“A periodic sequence of climatic changes that impact parts of the Pacific region, has significantly contributed to the dry spell in Kashmir,” Director Meteorological Department J&K, said.
“Drought-like conditions might arise in several parts of Kashmir if precipitation in January stays below normal. This happens when impact of above -average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean occurs,” he told.
According to the MeT office, this is the longest period without significant snowfall since 2015. He said, “In 2015, the Valley experienced its first major snowfall on January 24.”
He said that if January month passes without snow, 2024 may be tough for farming, tourism and drinking water needs as scant glaciers may not be able to feed rivers and streams for irrigation water throughout the year.
This winter, unseasonably warmer temperatures and little snow are not only being experienced across Jammu and Kashmir but other Himalayan states like HP and Uttarakhand too.
Throughout this winter, so far Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Pahalgam and Yusmarg have seen erratic snowfall, far below the average. The few flurries that did fall quickly melted away, leaving behind barren slopes and dashed hopes.
Due to the ongoing effects of long dry weather and other regional variables, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for the December-February period. Consequently, most parts of India are expected to have a less harsh winter this year.
According to the experts, when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius over the long-term average, El Niño is declared.
“The above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over the country as a whole in December 2023 to February 2024 are mainly attributed to El Niño, where temperatures tend to be higher. Additionally, regional factors like frequent western disturbances will cause cloudiness and low minimum temperatures,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra recently said during a press meet.
Earth scientist and glaciology experts while endorsing the IMD prognosis, said that the Kashmir valley might experience a mild winter and less snowfall than usual this year.
“As the effects of the present climate changes continue, the Kashmir valley may also see milder winters with lower-than-average snowfall. This is a different year, when usually brings less snowfall in the Kashmir Himalayas. This causes a long drought as seen in thevalley these days,” said experts.