Mohammad Hanief
Kashmir is bracing for tough months ahead as changing weather patterns, owing to diminishing signs of rain and snow and phenomenally rising temperatures in winter season in kashmir, will strike a blow to the region’s ecology and economy.
Kashmir’s persistent dry weather is taking a toll on its air quality, water resources, and economy, leaving residents and environmental experts deeply concerned. December 2024 has witnessed a staggering 79 percent precipitation deficit, with no snow in the plains and reduced snowfall in higher altitudes.
Over the years, the region has seen less rainfall and snowfall. The Meteorological Department says this is happening because winter temperatures are rising. December, when temperatures are usually sub-zero, has experienced average day temperatures of around 13 degrees Celsius.
Experts link this prolonged dry spell to climate change, which is disrupting the valley’s delicate seasonal cycles vital for agriculture, water supply, and daily life. The ongoing dry spell and shortened winters are clear indicators of climate change. These shifts disrupt hydroelectric projects, agriculture, and even the tourism sector, which are all lifelines of Kashmir’s economy.
Environmental experts suggest that the lack of timely snowfall means glaciers aren’t replenished, threatening long-term water security for the region. Farmers are being forced to shift from traditional paddy fields to less water-intensive crops like fruit orchards.
The dry weather, combined with vehicular emissions and the use of heating devices, has caused a surge in respiratory illnesses. Srinagar’s Air Quality Index (AQI) recently reached 183, labelled as “Unhealthy,” with PM2.5 levels at 119.7 µg/m³-far above safe limits.
Winter tourism, a cornerstone of Kashmir’s economy, is reeling under the impact of insufficient snowfall. Destinations like Gulmarg are seeing fewer visitors, and if this trend continues, it will significantly harm local economy.
Faced with the mounting challenges, many residents are turning to prayers, seeking relief from the unrelenting dry spell. The crisis calls for the urgent need for climate-resilient policies in agriculture, sustainable energy management, and improved pollution controls to protect the valley’s fragile ecosystem and its people.
Kashmir recorded an unusual weather pattern this winter. Many saw it as a fallout of the global El Nino effect, which set off warmer weather patterns during winters in other parts of the world too. In Kashmir, the peak winter months of December and January mostly passed without heavy snowfall, especially in the plains of the Valley during last winter season as well.
The warm weather spurred early blooming of flowers and orchards, especially apples. Experts worry that early flowering of apple orchards could have an impact on apple industry this year, as the fruit’s size and colour could be affected.
The apple industry contributes 6.5% – 7% to the Gross State Domestic Product of Jammu and Kashmir, with over 35 lakh people dependent on it. Jammu and Kashmir accounts for 73% of the total apple production in the country at around 22 lakh tonnes. Many now fear a fall in production this year as they wait to see the effects of the disrupted winter.
Over the years, the region has seen less rainfall and snowfall. The Meteorological Department says this is happening because winter temperatures are rising. The winters in Kashmir have been unusually warm. Despite the variability in weather patterns, like the colder December in 2023 with a bit of snow in high places, the first half of the month received less rain than usual.
Chillai Kalan in Kashmir is typically snowy, but in 2023 it has been quite dry. This marks the third winter in the last ten years without snow, especially after 2014. Researchers say there might be 30% to 70% less snow by the end of this century, indicating that the changing climate in Kashmir could have long-term impacts.
The alarmingly depleting glaciers that feed the water bodies of the region are adding to the crisis, warning of acute water shortage in the years to come. A renowned geology expert in his new research finding warns of 68% glacial loss by the century’s end. It highlights an annual mass reduction of 35 centimeters in over 1,200 glaciers in the Himalayan region between 2000 and 2012 due to the worsening climate change.
The adverse impacts of a dry season on the region’s water ecosystems particularly on Dal Lake which is home to many migratory birds and the lifeline of the residents and houseboat owners, whose economy is dependent on it.
The plants and animals in the region are facing difficulties due to the changing climate. Species that are native and accustomed to the usual weather are finding it tough to adapt to the environmental changes. The natural balance that helped different forms of life in Kashmir is now at risk, and this might create issues for the interconnected web of life.
Even animals that rely on snow for their sustenance would face an existential crisis. Animal species like mountain goats might have to go hungry or will be compelled to search for newer places as snow is essential for their food and shelter in the winters.
Less snow means that temperatures would be warmer and water bodies would begin to dry up, and this can cause various issues for the survival of both animals and humans as in Kashmir, when the snow on the mountains melts in the beginning of summer, it gives water to our rivers and streams. If there isn’t sufficient snow, people in the lower areas will have issues.
Snow plays a crucial role in Jammu and Kashmir’s winter. Many people depend on it because when it melts in spring, it provides water to millions in the region, making up 75% of their water supply. In June, many parts of Kashmir experienced a shortage of rain, almost like a drought. The Irrigation and Flood Control Department suggested farmers grow crops like maize instead of rice to cope, but not everyone followed the advice.
Even in hilly places like Gurez, Karnah, Keran, and Mughal Road, which usually get a lot of snow in winter, there has been little or no snow. Popular tourist spots like Pahalgam, Sonamarg, Doodhpathri, Yusmarg, and others in Kashmir, as well as Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, Poonch, and Rajouri in Jammu, have also received much less snow compared to previous years.
The crisis calls for the urgent need for climate-resilient policies in agriculture, sustainable energy management, and improved pollution controls to protect the valley’s fragile ecosystem and its people.
