Deepak Sinha
As Kashmir Valley limps back to the slow boil that passes for normalcy there, we confront age-old questions as to why, Kashmir always simmers and boils over at the slightest provocation and what is the way forward? One thing is certain: Blaming Pakistan, or for that matter, engaging with it in any fora over this subject is a waste of time and effort. The international community is aware of Pakistan’s perfidy in Kashmir, Afghanistan and elsewhere. As for us, the Kargil war was Pakistan’s last throw of the dice at any serious attempt to create mayhem in the valley, and that certainly didn’t end well for them. Since then, time and circumstances elsewhere have made them irrelevant in our calculations.
Despite what they may wish to believe, Pakistan has little traction within the valley or credibility outside, given its nefarious activities in Afghanistan and elsewhere. True, people may wave Pakistani flags and mouth pro-Pakistani slogans, as much to enrage and needle security forces, as to vent their frustration against the prevailing state of affairs, but by no means does that make them stupid or suicidal.
They are fully conversant with the treatment of Kashmiris and other minorities in what we refer to as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and in Baluchistan, or the sectarian killings destroying communities. If this were not true, the Hurriyat would have fought and swept the last local elections as the Jamaat-e-Islami had in 1989. Obviously, it has little faith in its own popularity and is probably quite aware that this so-called insurgency against the Indian state is one that exists only along the national highway, places that journalists and human right activists can reach with little trouble or effort. The interiors are too busy getting on with the surviving the daily grind of making a living.
The immediate provocation for the spate of violence may have been the killing of Burhan Wani, but that is just a reflection of a much deeper malaise as he is neither the first important militant leader to be neutralised, nor will he be the last. Despite what the pro-militant lobby or, for that matter, the security forces may want us to believe that there has not really been an upsurge in either recruitment of local militants or in militancy when seen over the course of the insurgency over the past three decades and not when just compared to the situation in 2008 or 2010. If memory serves me right, approximately on an average, 100 militants were neutralised every month in the mid-1990s, while not more than a 100 have been neutralised annually over the past five years. Similarly, in those days, a 1,000-plus militants operated at any one time in the valley, while today the numbers are around a 100.
It is important to remember that the present dispensation in power in Jammu and Kashmir was voted to power on the wings of hope and aspiration, mainly by the young, in the belief that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would lead in the transformation of Kashmir. Sadly, that did not happen and the situation was not helped either by Mufti Mohamed Sayeed’s tragic and unexpected death or, the utter complacency on the part of the political leadership at the Centre and in the State. The belief that absence of violence is akin to peace is a pernicious idea that the political class needs to root out of its DNA. All this, and the proclivity of politicians to play politics for short-term gains, murdered hopes of change in the horizon has led to the present volatile situation.
Looking at the issue in a wider context, the earlier concept of national security had purely military and economic connotations, with exclusive stress on territorial security and security of the State. This traditional outlook towards security has lost its relevance given the advances in information and communication technology and increasing economic linkages between countries, which events in Europe or West Asia may slow down but are unlikely to halt. Security of the people through sustainable development is today’s mantra and it is well-nigh impossible to isolate people and ideas from what is happening around the world.
Accordingly, instead of looking at ways to reduce the independence of our States, may be, its time to give the idea of federalism a greater push, give our States greater say in their future and empower our people. Instead of looking at abrogating Article 370 in Kashmir, give each of our States, a more enlightened Article 370 to secure their future. Surely we will then avoid the pitfalls that hold us back and spare us the bloodshed that has haunted us since independence.
