Omkar Dattatray
At last after many years of deployment of the Chinese army at the unmarked borders between India and China, the ice has been broken and recently there has been a thaw between the relations of the two neighboring country . The meeting between the prime minister of India Narendra Modi and president of China XI Jinping and the meeting of India’s foreign minister and his Chinese counterpart has led to the thaw in relations between India and China .The verbal agreements between the two countries are being materialized and implemented on the ground and it seems that good sense and sanity has prevailed on China and the two countries have started the disengagement of the troops from the borders .China cannot be trusted and that country should not be taken at face value and India should be very cautious and tread cautiously while dealing with China .China has a well -known record of springing surprises and India needs to remain alert all the time .The Modi -Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in the Russian city of Kazan symbolizes a thaw in the relationships between the two most powerful Asian countries that has turned bitter four years ago in the wake of Chinese Army’s unexpected attacks on the Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley .India’s commercial and political ties with China was moving in an upwardly positive trajectory when Galwan incident took place and Sino-Indian ties nosedived .It can be said that a restricted and restrained Cold war type rivalry emerged with China more fiercely expanding its influence in countries around India and at the same time feeling jittery about deepening India-US security relations .India’s proactive engagements in the India -Pacific ,strengthening of the Quad ,and Delhi’s ability to navigate the turbulent geopolitics emerging from the Ukraine war with continuation of stronger ties with Moscow and Washington appeared to be Beijing’s envy .However ,China also saw India’s robust economic growth amidst downturn in global political economy ,including in China .That country vividly sees the benefits of normalizing relations with India ,which has the tenacity to face Chinese muscle flexing along the LAC and the wisdom to maintain trade ties with China at the same time .Besides ,continuously taking unfriendly steps against India in the backdrop of US alliance politics in the Indo-pacific ,such as the Camp David Defense Pact with Japan and South Korea ,AUKUS Pact with Australia and Britain are now seen in Beijing as counterproductive .China is undoubtedly suspicious of Quad as well ,but respects India as a country that maintains its strategic autonomy .The way India has been able to keep Pakistan at bay also sends a clear signal to China that Islamabad may be proud of its all weather friendship with China ,but an unstable Pakistan cannot be a durable strategic asset and may actually become a liability .Chinese think in the long term and take steps with a strategic vision .The high level dialogue between the two sides at multiple levels to restore peace and stability along the border and its positive outcome is the byproduct of current Chinese strategic thinking .India is also a responsible international actor with deep strategic calculations .Modi government has successfully deterred further Chinese advances along the LAC ,reinforced the military presence in the border regions ,built critical infrastructure in the difficult Himalayan terrain ,and at the same time refused to normalize ties with China unless peace along the border is maintained and status quo of April 2020 is reinstated .The recent agreement by both the parties is a welcome development and the very first step to restore normalcy is mirrored in Modi-Xi meeting in Karzan .Both China and India support a multipolar world order ,both oppose unilateralism in principle ,both seek to champion the cause of the Global South ,and both are members of multiple multilateral mechanisms ,including BRICS ,East Asia Summit ,ASEAN Regional Forum ,and many others.PM Modi has aptly said that Sino-Indian cooperation can bring dividends for regional and global security.EAM S.Jaishankar has often stated that the 21st century cannot become an Asian century without deeper and expansive Sino-Indian cooperation .However ,the Modi-Xi meeting in Russia is only a first necessary step .It perhaps gives satisfaction to the strategic community and peace lovers in the Indo-Pacific region .After all ,many Indo-Pacific countries face their dilemmas in navigating the Sino-Indian differences and disputes .Thaw in Sino-Indian ties is certainly good for both the countries .But it is not a positive sign for countries that played China against India or saw strategic gains in emerging Sino-Indian competition in certain areas .Thus ,complications will crop up on the way to normalizing India’s relations with China .Some hardliners on both sides may also hold on to their conventional views that normalization of relations is not possible until the entire boundary disputes are resolved .Besides ,India needs to be cautious ,careful and diligent to progress through myriad dialogue mechanisms that have remained stalled since 2020.China has a well-known record of springing surprises and India needs to remain alert all the time .Trust is an imperative to conduct international relations ,but history teaches us that it is important to keep verifying the moves of other countries ,so that words ,written and spoken ,matches actions on the ground .On October 31,the day of Dewali ,the Hindu festival of lights ,Indian and Chinese troops exchanged sweets along the disputed border ,just a day after the two countries had successfully completed military disengagements at two points in Ladakh ,the theater of a bitter standoff over the Last four years .Ten days before Diwali ,Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had announced that India and China had reached ”an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the LOC leading to disengagement and resolution of issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”Two days after the foreign statement ,Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his first meeting in five years with Chinese president Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan ,Russia .During their 50 minute conversation ,the two leaders emphasized the importance of improving bilateral relations from a strategic and long term perspective ,upgrading strategic communications and pursuing cooperation for mutual development .They also agreed that their officials would meet to address the border issue ,in order to restore peace and tranquilly .The latest agreement provides for Chinese and Indian troops pulling back from occupied areas at Depsang Plains ,and Demchok and reverting to their pre -May 2020 positions .On the ground disengagements are being implemented and followed and both sides have moved their troops from the positions of discord. Disengagement is being followed and Jaishankar underscored the need for de-escalation ,which is meant to address the buildup of forces along the LAC since 2020.After disengagement ,India and China await de-escalation says S. Jaishankar EAM said disengagement process has been done and there is need to address de-escalation of forces .To cut the long story short the thaw in relations between India and China has been reached and it is a welcome development and it will build strong foundations for de-escalation and finally the better ties between India and China will follow which will be in the interest of both the countries.
(The author is a columnist, social and KP activist).