SHAKEELA ANDRABI
SRINAGAR: According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), India is likely to experience heat waves between March and May, especially in wheat producing central and northern states. It was stated by IMD on Feb 28, as the country recorded highest-ever maximum temperature in February. A heat-wave for the second straight year could dent production of wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, and complicate Governments’ efforts to bring down inflation. Higher temperatures could also lift power consumption above supplies during the summer season. “Enhanced probability of occurrence of heat wave during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining Northwest India,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.
Meanwhile, a heat wave is all set to hit Jammu & Kashmir in April and there is no forecast of any major spell in precipitation for some time. Director Meteorological Department said that maximum temperatures in J&K and Ladakh were already showing an upward trend and recording above normal by 5 degree Celsius.”There has been an acute shortage of powerful western disturbances so far this year,” he said. He further added that clear skies were adding to rise in maximum as well as minimum temperatures in Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, and this indicated that a heat-wave is set to hit parts of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh in April.
“There is a transition from winter to summer and coming days will be hotter,” he said. “J&K and Ladakh are recording temperatures 5 degrees above normal. Not only J&K and Ladakh, the heat wave will hit entire north India. As per the forecast, on March 13 and 14 there is chance of light rains,” the IMD predicted.
As per department, there could be a water crisis for irrigation this year as there had been deficient precipitation during past two months in J&K.”But it is premature to say,” he said, adding, “As a result of the absence of any strong Western Disturbance and stable atmosphere, weather remained fair and mainly clear on most occasions which led to early onset of spring and above normal temperatures compared to last few years.”
The mean temperature in Jammu city in March 2022 was 23.3 degrees Celsius and 13.7 degrees Celsius in Srinagar, which is quite high. However, these high temperatures are not unusual as mean temperature even touched 24 degrees Celsius in Jammu in 2004 and 2010 and in Srinagar mean temperatures touched 13.6 and 13.7 degrees Celsius in 2004 and 2010.
In 2020, J&K recorded 979.1 mm of rainfall against an average rainfall of 1258.7 mm. There was a deficit of 22 per cent. In 2021, the deficiency reached 29 percent when the union territory recorded just about 894.4 mm of rainfall. It was the lowest rainfall since 2010. In the first five months of 2022, J&K recorded a rain deficiency of 38 per cent.
In comparison, 34 per cent deficiency was witnessed in 2020 and 11.5 per cent in 2021 for the same time period and between June and September 2020, 34 percent deficient rainfall was recorded in J&K and 29 per cent in 2021. In fact, from March to May 2022, J&K received only 99.5 mm of rainfall, which is the lowest spring rainfall since 2005.
In March, the crucial month for the maturity of winter-sown crops, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except peninsular India, it said. A heat wave curtailed India’s wheat production in 2022 and forced the world’s second largest producer to ban exports. Average maximum temperature in February was 29.54 degrees Celsius, the highest since 1901, when IMD started keeping weather records.