DOST KHAN
JAMMU: With crucial elections in Jammu and Kashmir over, the results, on a larger plank, are out. Indian democracy has won, people have won, those longing for peace have won; and, if anyone has lost, it is Pakistan, her lackeys in the form of separatists and secessionists; and above all, the most vocal soft secessionists, who have been having better of both the worlds by benefitting from the situation, both external as well as internal.
After last vote of the final phase of elections polled, the first exit poll result came announcing hung Assembly with PDP and BJP emerging as two major players. This is ironically the truth of Jammu and Kashmir, which many in India have failed to understand. This is the story of the Jammu and the Kashmir regions, which have asserted their aspirations differently.
On the face of exit polls, it appears that the soft-separatists have succeeded in capitalising situation by raising the so-called BJP bogey and injecting a sort of fear among voters about imminent ‘invisible’ Indian dominance. Look, how PDP, Congress and National Conference ganged up together to germinate the fear of BJP getting voted from Kashmir. In a subtle but calculated manner they hobnobbed to keep Kashmir free from BJP’s foothold. More than insisting about BJP being a divisive force, the underlying message sent across remained that voting BJP would be diluting the ‘disputed’ status of Kashmir. It is different that PDP emerged as the immediate beneficiary of this subtle smear campaign, if exit polls are any indicator. Similarly, the Jammu verdict in favour of BJP should be taken as a vote against continuous discrimination of the region by successive governments led by Kashmir-centric politicians. This was acknowledged by Congress President Saif-ud-Din Soz himself though in an unsuccessful bid to garner some votes for Congress that had reaped maximum benefit of the twenty seats going to last phase of polls in 2008 elections.
If exit polls stand the credibility test on 23rd December, Jammu and Kashmir will witness a real volcanic situation with the close of this year. It will be a different scenario with Jammu tasting its political power for the first time after independence. Placed with strength of near 30 seats, the job of Kashmir centric politicians will become difficult, especially with PDP having the highest number of legislators. Ideologically the two parties are poles apart–North Pole and South Pole. While PDP has fought the elections on the promise of Self-Rule and solving of the ‘so-called imbroglio’, it will never feel comfortable in the company of BJP, which is pursuing a national agenda, unlike Congress. There has been no compatibility between the two regions, with leaders of one raking up emotive issues and people of the other (Ladakh also) craving for development and progress. Where will the State go? Even if PDP manages the support of Congress with its meager strength, the dispensation will not be well poised before the strong opposition of 30. They may rope in some party activists as ministers through Legislative Council route but the PDP cannot claim to be representing the entire State. The praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi by the party leadership is just part of its strategy to keep the Centre in good humour for deriving as much benefits as they can.
In this backdrop, the major refrain of BJP will remain discrimination, which was made very clear by the Prime Minister himself while winding up electioneering for the fifth phase of polling. The Congress, with all its bargaining power, has not gone beyond being a cushion to share the loaves of power. It has never asserted for aspirations of the Jammu region, which is why it will be faced with historic drubbing on the Hindu-dominated turf. The PDP cannot offer any olive branch to BJP in view of its compulsions in Kashmir. The party has to push forward the agendas like healing touch, amnesty to stone-pelters, rehabilitation of surrendered terrorists and so on. This is just red rag for the BJP, which essentially believes in integration of the State with national mainstream, The BJP is also fundamentally against any concession to terrorists or those speaking in separatist tone. The net result will be the State heading towards polarisation with Jammu raising the demand of Regional Council. Will it turn out an agenda for BJP during the next six years, with Narendra Modi led government remaining in command for most of the time at the Centre?