Yogendra Yadav
Not just because of the two rounds of Assembly elections due this year will 2018 be the year of election. And not just because of the possibility that the Lok Sabha elections may be advanced to the end of this year. Whether that happens or not, this year is going to be all about the forthcoming elections. The Budget speech this year will be an election speech. The Economic Survey and all economic statistics will be seen from an electoral prism. And so would the meteorological data on the monsoon. Chinese movements in Doklam and border skirmishes with Pakistan would not be external relations. They would be about event management and public relations for the regime. The Supreme Court’s judgment on Ayodhya would be awaited less for who owns the land, more for its implications for political arithmetic. The crisis in Assam linked to the National Register of Citizenship would be noticed not for the human tragedy, but for how it could be milked electorally outside the state. This is what we mean by an election year.
Election fixation is of a different order this time, partly because this regime is generally fixated on elections. Nothing else matters; not public criticism, not protest movements, even the plight of the people. Democratic legitimacy has been reduced to electoral victory. Hence the PM’s personal involvement in every round of elections, big or small.
This election year is also going to be extraordinary as the stakes are impossibly high. The forthcoming parliamentary election is not just about a second term for Mr Modi, or about the completion of the BJP’s dominance of the political map of India. It’s not just about whether whether Rahul Gandhi or the Congress party will have a future or not. Nor is it just about whether it is the end of the road for regional formations like the BSP, INLD, AAP, or the Left parties. It’s about the future of the republic of India. Ever since the ascent of Mr Modi to power, the country has witnessed the most determined and vigorous onslaught on the foundations of our republic. Already compromised during the Congress regime, autonomous institutions have been reduced to their lowest ever since the days of the Emergency. Much of the mainstream media, especially television, is an extended arm of the ruling party. Constitutional commitment to diversity and protection of religious minorities has been reduced to a farce unlike ever before in independent India. Another term for this regime could well inscribe these practices into the DNA of our body politic. Thus, this year is not about watching an electoral horserace. It is about watching the making and unmaking of the future of India. This is the lens we need to deploy to make sense of 2018.
Much of the political speculation through this year would centre round who, when and how: Who is leading the horserace? When would the elections be held – as due in 2019 or along with Assembly elections in December 2018? And how is the electoral alignment shaping up? Would there be a grand anti-BJP coalition? But these are not the real questions. Instead, we should focus on what. The real question is what are the issues around which the electoral contestation will take place.
All we know is that the race is not as one-sided as it appeared before the Gujarat elections. All we can say is that the ruling party’s discomfiture in rural areas is not limited to Gujarat. No doubt, the BJP faces tougher contests in most Assembly elections due this year than in Gujarat. The Congress is not likely to hand over Karnataka as easily as it did Himachal Pradesh. Given its rather low base, the BJP is unlikely to do anything spectacular in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura, but for some political horse-trading or ethnic violence. It is fair to say that the country hasn’t witnessed much of an opposition over the last three years and a half, except some routine anti-Modi-ism or some ritual noises in Parliament. Would we now witness some serious opposition on the ground? To be sure, an SP-BSP alliance in UP, Congress alliance with the BJD in Orissa and the DMK in Tamil Nadu and Nitish Kumar’s return to the fold of Opposition can radically alter electoral equations. Yet, offering a credible opposition is not just about uniting the parties whose lack of credibility brought the BJP to power in the first place.
What’s at stake? Not just the PM’s position but that of the very republic. The question of election timing is linked to this. If the opposition can offer a credible alternative, then Mr Modi may be forced to advance the elections to cut his losses and to prevent his growing unpopularity from becoming a wave.
The critical question of the year is about the issues on which political and electoral battle takes shape. Mr Modi is sharp enough to realise that at the end of nearly four years, he does not have anything tangible to show to his electorate, especially to those in rural India. While he remains more popular than any of his rivals, he knows this is a fragile asset. The Gujarat election has indicated the direction that Mr Modi is likely to take if faced with a serious challenge: communalism and jingoist nationalism. So, we should not be surprised if 2018 witnesses sudden resurfacing of some forgotten mosques/temple disputes, if some minor border conflict is blown up into a tele-war. The opposition might try to counter it with liberal/secular talk which does not resonate with the electorate or with caste coalitions.
A serious counter to this can come from two directions: farmers’ movements and youth protests. 2017 witnessed a transformation of rural distress into farmers’ movements. Nearly 200 farmers’ organisations have come together to demand guaranteed remunerative prices and a complete one-time loan waiver. This government has neither the understanding nor the will to respond to this crisis by anything other than palliatives. This year will be the test of farmers’ movements’ ability to coordinate their struggle. The youth unrest is at once more amorphous and dispersed, but potentially more disruptive than the agrarian crisis. Watch 2018 for any signs of coordinated youth action on equal access to education and right to employment.
This election year, the final equation is simple; it is either agrarian crisis and youth unrest or Hindu-Muslim conflict. Which way this equation tilts will determine the electoral outcome and India’s future for some time to come.