R. K Sinha
Close on the heels of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Union Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is visiting Tehran on 6-7 April to meet top leadership of Iran. Recently sanctions against Iran were lifted by six world powers. India is trying to grab the opportunities created under the new situation so far as Oil and Gas related issues are concerned. The visit of Dharmendra Pradhan should be seen in that light. India’s attempt to expedite its engagement with the energy rich Iran comes in the background of expectations around Iran opening up its substantive hydrocarbon reserves, which may also include production-sharing contracts.
Currently, India mainly imports crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. India’s crude oil import from Africa and South America rose 10% each as Indian refiners bought more heavy but cheaper grade oil.
It goes without saying that sending the petroleum minister would send a very good signal to the people of Iran. India wants to convey to Iran that it greatly value economic and strategic relationship with Iran. There in Tehran, Pradhan would meet with Iran’s petroleum minister Bijan Namdar Zangenah to discuss building a gas pipeline from Iran to India through various alternative routes.
It was almost certain that India would go all out to woo Iran after the United States removed a wide range of sanctions against Iran after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Tehran has met its commitments to roll back its nuclear programme, under an agreement with China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the U.S and Germany.
Once US lifted sanctions against Iran, India and Iran have started extensive discussions on key bilateral and regional issues including security, energy, and connectivity as New Delhi looked at re-energizing its ties. During the 13th round of India-Iran Foreign Office Consultations in February last in New Delhi, which was chaired by India’s Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar and Ebrahim Rahimpour, Iranian Deputy Minister for Asia and Pacific Affairs, the two sides reviewed the entire gamut of bilateral ties. The Iranian leader also had a meeting with India’s foreign minister Sushma Swaraj.
After India and the US signed a civil nuclear deal in 2008, several Iran-related Indian projects have either been put on hold or dropped. India also decided to focus on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline instead of the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project. And when we talk about pipeline project, one should keep in mind the fact that only recently Iranian President, Dr. Hassan Rouhani visited Pakistan. In Pakistan, he discussed pipeline project. It is still not clear whether India also figured in their talk on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline issue. India has not taken part in the talks on the 1,036 km Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline since 2007, citing security and commercial concerns.
Rouhani arrived in Pakistan on a landmark visit, his first since becoming President, at a time when Saudi Arabia is courting Islamabad to increase participation in a new Saudi-led military alliance of mostly Sunni nations, a coalition perceived by Tehran as an anti-Shiite block. It cannot be a chance that after couple of days of Iran president visit to Pakistan,Narendra Modi was in Riyadh.
Returning to India-Iran ties, it is also believed that as Iran coming to market, there will be further slide in oil prices. India will be one of the beneficiaries of sliding oil prices. There are differences and misperceptions between India and Iran. India is going to face some unpleasant realities about its most fundamental policy departure: a negative vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) against Iran’s nuclear record. How can New Delhi be sure now that Tehran will overlook India’s vote at the IAEA? The South block mandarins have to make extra efforts to explain to Iran leadership as to why India voted against it in IAEA.
It may be recalled that India had relegated Iran by cutting down purchases from 21.2 million tones crude in 2009-10 to 11 million tonnes in 2013-14. Further, Indian firms have so far shied away from investing in Iran for fear of sanctions by the US and Europe. But after the lifting of sanctions, India is making a renewed pitch for rights to develop 12.8 Trillion cubic feet of gas reserves ONGC Videsh Ltd had found in 2008.
Historic ties
If we scan through the pages of India and Iran relations, we see that both have shared social, cultural, economic and political connections and relations that have enriched both civilizations. Moreover, Indo-Iran relations have a domestic political dimension as well. India’s large Shia population has been an important variable in India’s interaction with Iran. As that is not enough, India’s powerful Parsi community traces their roots to Iran. India’s leading Industrialists like Tata and Godrej and many more are Parsies. They have a huge influence on government. Overall, India’s diplomacy with Iran has been rooted in social and economic interests.
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline
Now India is likely to push for the implementation of Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. The planned pipeline from the Iranian coast via the Oman Sea and Indian Ocean to Gujarat is proposed to carry 31.5 million standard cubic metres gas per day. Once again Indian is likely to pursue for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project. The IPI stalled under pressure from the U.S., which prodded India into working towards an alternative gas transport line from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan. For India, energy pipelines have always been an attractive prospect whose advantages are seemingly tangible but always just out of reach.
It is high time that India woos Iran and creates a situation so that Tehran forgets our actions against it. Hopefully, the visit of Dharmendra Pradhan to Tehran would be path-breaking in terms of India-Iran ties. It would also pave the way for the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Tehran and President Dr. Hassan Rouhani visit to New Delhi in near future.