NEW DELHI: India’s economy grew by 8.2 per cent in the fiscal year that ended in March, cementing the country’s position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, boosting credentials of Prime Minister Narendra Modi government ahead of ending of mammoth, weeks-long general elections.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 7 per cent in the previous 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023) fiscal, according to Statistics Ministry data.
The Reserve Bank of India has forecast that the economy will expand by 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, outpacing global growth that’s forecast to reach 3 per cent in 2024.
Prime Minister termed the FY24 growth rate as just a trailer of things to come. “The Q4 GDP growth data for 2023-24 shows robust momentum in our economy which is poised to further accelerate. Thanks to the hardworking people of our country, 8.2% growth for the year 2023-24 exemplifies that India continues to be the fastest growing major economy globally.”
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the “remarkable” growth rate will continue in the third term of Modi.”
The growth is mainly driven by good showing by the manufacturing sector, though the farm sector recorded deceleration during the fiscal as well as fourth quarter (January-March 2024).
According the data, India’s economy recorded 7.8 per cent in the January-March period, the slowest in the four quarters of FY24. It was 8.6 per cent in October-December 2023, 8.1 per cent in July-September 2023 and 8.2 per cent in April-June 2023.
The GDP grew 6.2 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2022-23.
The growth propelled the Indian economy to USD 3.5 trillion and set the stage for achieving the USD 5-trillion target in the next few years.
China has registered an economic growth of 5.3 per cent in the first three months of 2024.
According to the NSO data, real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, is estimated to attain a level of Rs 173.82 lakh crore in 2023-24, against the first revised estimates (FRE) of GDP for 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore.
“The growth rate in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.2 per cent as compared to 7.0 per cent in 2022-23,” it stated.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices is estimated to attain a level of Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, against Rs 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.6 per cent, it added.
The real GDP in the March quarter of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 47.24 lakh crore, against Rs 43.84 lakh crore a year earlier, showing a growth rate of 7.8 per cent.
Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices in the March quarter of 2023-24, is estimated at Rs 78.28 lakh crore, against Rs 71.23 lakh crore in the year-ago period, showing a growth rate of 9.9 per cent.
The real GVA (gross value added) is estimated at Rs 158.74 lakh crore in 2023-24, against the FRE for 2022-23 of Rs 148.05 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.2 per cent as compared to 6.7 per cent in 2022-23.
The GVA growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated to 8.9 per cent in the March quarter against 0.9 per cent a year ago.
GVA growth in mining was 4.3 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to 2.9 per cent in the same quarter of the previous fiscal.
“As predicted, GDP growth rate for 2023-24 crossed the 8% mark and lands at a comfortable 8.2%. Great news for India!!,” Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission Arvind Panagariya said in a social media post.
Construction grew 8.7 per cent in the quarter, up from 7.4 per cent in the corresponding period of 2022-23. The agriculture sector growth decelerated to 0.6 per cent from 7.6 per cent.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew 7.7 per cent during the fourth quarter from 7.3 per cent in the year-ago period.
GVA growth in the services sector — trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting — was 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter against a growth of 7 per cent a year ago.
The country’s leading economists, including Former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar, hailed the GDP growth rate of 8.2 per cent in FY24, terming it “above all estimates and forecasts”.
Kumar said this is the third year in which India has grown at over 7 per cent, outpacing all other large economies.
Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India said the GDP surprised to the upside, thanks to strong growth in manufacturing and robust buoyancy in the services sector.
“The fourth quarter of FY 2024 saw a prominent increase in exports of engineering goods, electronics items, drugs and pharmaceuticals, and organic and inorganic chemicals—the highest-ever exports recorded in history. That is good news as India is gradually moving up the global value chain,” Majumdar added.
Commenting on the data, Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India opined that the 8.2 per cent growth estimate for 2023-24 is significant as it is above the psychological mark of 8% that should boost business sentiments.
“The GDP numbers have been buoyed by a strong print in manufacturing supported by a low base given the negative growth printed in the previous year. Mining and Quarrying has also helped the higher print,” he said.
As per the NSO data, financial, real estate and professional services grew 7.6 per cent in the March 2023 quarter compared to 9.2 per cent in the year-ago period. Public administration, defence and other services posted 7.8 per cent growth in the quarter against 4.7 per cent expansion in the same quarter a year ago. (PTI)