Mohammad Hanief
The climate change is the biggest environmental emergency that the earth faces today. This inevitable disaster has a multitude of serious implications for both environment and human society. Efforts are being made to develop a better scientific understanding of this complex problem by generating better future projections of climate change. The climate change has potential implications on different sectors including glaciers and permafrost, rivers, forests, soils, ecosystems, society and economy etc.
Falling in Himalayan region, Jammu and Kashmir has a geographic area 2,22,236 sqkm. Around 20230 sqkm, which comprises 19.95 percent of the geographical area of Jammu and Kashmir, is under the forest cover. It is divided into three regions: Ladakh, Kashmir Valley and Jammu. The higher regions are covered by Pir Panjal, Karakoram, Zanskar and inner Himalayan ranges of mountains. The increase in temperature has to do with the topography and high altitude. We have seen that warming is higher in Himalayas and other mountainous regions of the globe. Temperature varies from place to place and it is basically a function of location, longitude and altitude. Effects of climate change are already being felt on the ground.
From heat waves devastating crop yields to torrential rains causing flooding that submerges entire communities, India is experiencing some of the most extreme impacts of the climate crisis. While India comprises a little over 17% of the world’s population, it produces just about 7% of global emissions.
This might seem miniscule, but slight increases in temperature can throw our planet’s natural systems out of whack, contributing to extreme weather like heat waves, drought, and flooding. These climate impacts also disproportionately affect working families and people of color.
Like many countries around the world, India is facing water security issues, and at the same time, widespread flooding. India’s agricultural sector relies on monsoon season. However, over the last century, there have been more days with extremely heavy rains with longer dry spells in between. This has heavily impacted India’s central belt running from western Maharashtra State to the Bay of Bengal, which has seen extreme rainfall events increase threefold over the last 70 years, but has also had a decrease in total annual rainfall.
The Himalayas, a long-time protector against drought in India, are at risk, too. A 2019 report predicted that by 2100, at least one-third of the glaciers in the region will be gone. Glacial melting as a result of rising temperatures has also exacerbated both flooding and drought, especially in agricultural mountain communities that rely on seasonal snowmelt.
In India, approximately 70% of households rely on agriculture for their livelihoods but are “struggling with lower yields” attributed to “frequent droughts and lower rainfall.” Farmers are severely impacted by these unpredictable weather patterns, which has caused many to move on to urban areas, where extreme heat can make outdoor work dangerous.
Global warming and rise in temperature also impacted Jammu and Kashmir as it has surpassed the world average in temperature rise (for the last 100 years). As against the global increase of 0.8 to 0.9, it has recorded a 1.2 degree Celsius rise in temperature. Seasonal air temperatures also show a rise in all seasons, which, according to experts, is a cause of concern.
The annual rainfall in the Himalayan region is likely to vary between 1268±225.2 and 1604±175.2 mm in the 2030s. Kashmir Valley-based environmentalists / agriculturalists believe that an abnormal rise in temperatures in particular can prove drastic for some of our native plants, increasing their sterility and hence lowering the overall production.
Irrigated rice, wheat and mustard production in Jammu and Kashmir may be reduced by six per cent, four per cent and four per cent, respectively. The deficit in food production in the Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent, while the deficit is 30 per cent for vegetable production and 69 per cent for oilseed production.
Changes in climatic conditions are causing expansion of the normal range of pests leading to occurrence of more diseases in crops and ultimately resulting in the decreasing production of food crops. In the last few years, because of climate change, there has been a dismal production of paddy every year, and farmers of many areas of the valley are adopting horticulture.
As a matter of fact, Kashmir, which used to produce sufficient agriculture produce like rice or wheat, is now meagerly producing these cereals and if the change of climate continues at the same pace, Kashmir will very soon be importing every bit of the food, which the people of Kashmir will consume from the neighbouring states.
Saffron production in Kashmir valley has a historical background is the only place in India to produce saffron for commercial purposes. Saffron production has decreased during the past two decades due to global climatic changes.
Looking at the present situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the figures in terms of production, area and yield rate are not satisfactory as the gap between deficit and requirement is increasing at an increasing rate which has gone up to 81 per cent against the current population growth.
The major causes of the decline of the top food grains in J&K are: land use changes, global warming, climate change / variability, reduced availability of water for irrigation affected by erratic rainfall, loss of soil moisture, degraded soil health, extreme drought events and shifts in the rainfall regime resulting into failure of crop germination and fruit set. Certain measures are required to be taken to overcome this problem which include creation of laws; desilting, growing of pulses, millets and adoption of agroforestry.
The dry spell weather conditions will make a severe dent on Kashmir’s tourism industry. The absence of snowfall will result in the shutting of snow sports. Kashmir’s famous tourist resort, Gulmarg, attracts tourists from all over the world, but the resort will remain deserted in the absence of snowfall. The Thajwas Glacier (also known as Hidden Jewel of Kashmir), a major tourist attraction in Kashmir’s Sonamarg, is melting at a rapid pace. Before 20 years, this glacier was spread over a huge area and tourists were able to get a glimpse of it by just walking only a few meters. But now they need to walk kilometers to see the glacier.
Climate projections suggest that impacts are likely to be varied and heterogeneous in India. Some regions will experience more intense rainfall and flood risks, while others will encounter sparser rainfall and droughts including spatial shift in the pattern of rainfall. The Fifth Assessment Report has further emphasized the loss of ice from glacial range and projected that the current glacial extents are out of balance with current climatic condition indicating that glaciers will continue to shrink in the future even without further temperature increase.
A global scientific consensus with regard to the unequivocal nature of the climate change and its association with increasing concentration of greenhouse gas emissions is widely established. Regional climate projection indicates that climate variability will manifest through alteration in frequency, intensity, spatial extent, or duration of weather and climate extremes, including climate and hydro-meteorological events.
This is likely to pose greater risks to human life and endanger the sustainability of the economy of several states in India. Indeed the likely projection of the hydro metrological and geophysical hazards has the potential to derail the current growth strategy and deepen poverty amongst the vulnerable. The impacts of extreme climate-induced events (such as cloud burst, enhanced glacial flow, untimely dry and wet days) could result in loss of life, livelihoods, assets and infrastructure and affect the economic growth and pro poor initiatives.
Climate change is an important concern as it is presently on a carbon-oriented development path and at the same time, it is vulnerable to climate variations owing to the fragile ecosystem and at the conclusion, a comprehensive Climate Change Action Plan with institutional structure for its implementation to be conceptualized that would address both adaptation and mitigation.
(The author is a regular columnist and can be mailed at m.hanief@gmail.com).