Dr Banarsi Lal
Agriculture plays an immense role in ensuring food and livelihood security and it accounts for a significant share of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It engages around two-thirds of the population in gainful employment. Many industries such as food, milk processing, sugar, textiles, jute etc. depend on agricultural production. As agriculture is having its close linkages with other economic sectors so agricultural growth has a multiplier effect on the entire national economy. Presently, the threat of climate change poses a serious challenge for sustainable agricultural growth. This threat is compounded due to accumulated greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, anthropogenically generated through long-term intensive industrial growth and high consumption lifestyles. As the international community is making strenuous efforts to deal with this threat, India needs to develop a strategy for adapting to climate change and its variability in order to ensure ecological sustainability. A resilient agricultural production system is required to sustain productivity in the event of extreme climatic variability. The Indian farmers have evolved many coping mechanisms over the years but these have been fallen short of an effective response strategy in dealing with recurrent and intense forms of extreme climatic events on the one hand and gradual changes in climate like rise in surface temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, increase in evapo-transpiration rates and degrading soil moisture conditions on the other. The need of the hour is, therefore, to synergise modern agricultural technologies with the indigenous technical knowledge of the farmers to enhance the resilience of the Indian agriculture to climate change.
Climate Change refers to the statistical variations in the properties of the climate system such as changes in temperatures, rainfall etc. due to natural or human causes over a long period of time. Climate change drastically alters the distribution and quality of natural resources thus adversely affecting the livelihood security of the people. In order to sustain agricultural growth to mitigate food requirements, policies and strategies need re-orientation with appropriate feedback mechanisms that are embedded in the policy spectrum for not only meeting food grain and buffer stock requirements but also to ensure livelihood security in times of catastrophic incidents. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the adverse impact of climate change due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events would be on the agricultural production. Consistent warming trends and more frequent and intense extreme weather events are being observed across India in the recent decades. The catastrophe of flash floods and land sliding in Jammu and Kashmir on 6th September, 2014 is the best example of climate change. Several areas such as coastal areas, Indo-Gangetic plains and the drought and flood prone regions of the country have been identified as risk prone due to the impacts of climate change. Agricultural crops, livestock, fresh water and the marine ecosystem all are likely to be affected due to change in climate. Such climatic fluctuations adversely affect agricultural sustainability resulting in unforeseen situational shortages which could also impact other economic sectors. Vulnerability of India in the event of climate change is more pronounced due to its ever increasing dependency on agriculture, excessive pressure on natural resources and poor management mechanisms. The warming trend in India over the past 100 years (1901-2000) is estimated to be 0.4 degree C. The projected impact of further warming is likely to aggravate yield fluctuations of many crops. While in the short- run the impact may not be severe but most crops are expected to decline in yield after 2020. A one degree Celsius rise in mean temperature would likely to affect wheat yield in the heartland of green revolution. Negative impact on yield of wheat and paddy in certain parts of India due to rise in temperatures, increase in water stress and reduction in the number of rainy days has been observed. Parts of western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Northern Karnataka, Northern Andhra Pradesh and Southern Bihar are expected to be more vulnerable in times of extreme climatic events. It is estimated that irrigation requirements in arid and semiarid regions would likely to increase by 10% for every 1 degree rise in temperature. Rise in sea level would also likely to have adverse effects on the livelihood of fishermen. The effect can even be more detrimental if no adaptation is taken. The negative impact on agricultural production will imply significant percentage fall in the annual GDP and its fallout for livelihood security in the agricultural sector and other economic sectors. As the short term mitigation measures demand immediate attention, the complexities of abiotic stress on crops and livestock in the long term would require intensive research to effectively address the adaptation processes required for making our production systems resilient to climate change.
Sustainable agricultural practices maintain environmental and soil health and also economic profitability. Thus, stewardship of both natural and human resources is of prime importance. In other words, sustainable agriculture involves the processes that would enable us to meet the current and long term societal needs for food, fiber and other resources, while maximising benefits through the conservation of natural resources and maintenance of ecosystem. The priority of exalting human capabilities at the individual level and ensuring food security at the national level, through efficient and equitable use of resources are compatible with the concept of sustainable agriculture. Inter-annual, intra-seasonal, monthly and daily distribution of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and humidity play a pivotal role in most of the physical, physiological, chemical and biological processes that increase productivity in agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries sectors. Any change in these climatic determinants not only leads to adverse impact on food security and nutrition but also affects the livelihood of millions depending on the agricultural sector. Agriculture and allied sectors, thus, exhibit high sensitivity to climatic variability and changes. While in the long run, climate change is likely to exacerbate current stresses there by increasing the vulnerabilities in food production and livelihoods of farming communities, even the short- run climatic variability and occurrence of extreme weather events would affect agricultural production, livestock and fisheries. Climate change is also likely to significantly alter the dynamics of extreme events such as tropical cyclones, storms surges and extreme rainfall events; possibly increasing their frequency and intensity. It is estimated that low lying regions, including small islands, will face the highest exposure to rising sea levels, which further will increase the risk of floods bringing more cultivable area under the risk of submergence and degradation. Due to excessive rainfall hilly areas are prone to land sliding followed by flash floods in the rivers.
A number of environmental, social and economic factors contribute to the differential vulnerability of diverse farming systems. Rainfed areas, in particular, having complex cropping systems operating under fragile ecological conditions, constitute about 60 % of net cultivated area. Poverty levels and high population density are other important factors that increase the vulnerability of the Indian agricultural system to climate change. Multiple stresses on natural resources such as soil erosion, salinisation of irrigated lands, degradation of pastures, water pollution and overexploitation of forest stocks contribute to low resilience in the Indian farming systems. As most of the agricultural production takes place in rural areas by engaging people from the marginalized sections of the society, the crop management capacity of the farmers during climatic extremities is limited. Crop management response of the Indian farmers to natural shocks such as droughts are often of distress through sale or mortgage of farm assets like livestock or land. Constraint in accessing institutional or formal financial mechanisms for agricultural credit is another important factor that contributes to high vulnerability of the sector. Similarly, agricultural markets and food supply chains in India are mainly in the unorganized sector which is often dominated by intermediaries thereby depriving the farmers of their due remuneration. Post-harvest losses due to inadequate storage and transport infrastructure, lack of market information and intelligence reduce the profitability of farming systems. Although there are mechanisms to provide adequate information access on weather and crop management, they often operate on a delayed mode and lack feedback mechanism. The combination of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity makes enhancing resilience in the Indian agriculture and allied sectors a challenging task.
Climate change alters the natural balance of local and global ecosystems and infringes on human settlements. It is expected that vulnerable groups such as poor will face food insecurity, loss of livelihood, hardships due to environmental change and extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, storms, cyclones and land sliding. The overall impact of climate change on our food production systems and economy is expected to be high as the agriculture and its allied sectors still accounts for a large share of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Although agriculture contribution to GDP is falling, it still accounts for a significant share. For the States like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, the percentage share of agriculture and allied activities in state domestic product is more than 30 percent. The Indian agriculture now faces the challenge of ensuring food security amidst constraints such as stagnating net sown area, deterioration of land quality, reduction in per capita land availability etc. As a result, agricultural productivity has been witnessing stagnation in recent years. Besides, issues such as competing demand for water in the context of changing demographics and its various end uses, further aggravates the degree of risks in the agriculture sector. These have considerable implications for food and livelihood security and as agriculture production being risk prone, may lead to migration from rural to urban areas. Fostering rapid, sustainable and broad-based growth in agriculture is thus a key priority keeping in mind the overall socio-economic development trajectory of the country, especially in the light of existing vulnerabilities that relate to a shrinking land resource base, additional stresses arising from the non-agricultural sector and issues emerging due to changing climate. This necessitates a strategic approach with a renewed vision and redefined focus.
(The author is Head, KVK Reasi, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology-Jammu).