Sankar Sen
The spectre of jihadi terrorism is now haunting Europe. The attacks in Belgium demonstrated that the Islamic State has spread its tentacles successfully in different countries of Europe. It has set up a number of sleeper cells and can activate them as and when necessary. It can draw on supporters, some of whom have bomb-making abilities, and can communicate securely.
Salah Abdeslam, the mastermind of the Paris attacks, was on the run for a long time. It was known to the police that he had gone to Belgium, but it took two months for the Belgian police to arrest him. The long period of time that he managed to evade police shows that he had local support
After the Paris attack, considerable attention was focussed on problems such as disenfranchisement, segregation and radicalisation of Muslim communities in Europe. Most Muslims are from former colonies in Africa or Arabia, with linguistic affinities. They were absorbed in low-end jobs, which was acceptable to the first generation of immigrants.
But their offsprings are better educated and want to rise in society. However, they are unable to find better jobs. They are angry and frustrated. Also, these immigrants are mostly from Islamic nations which have helped groups such as the Islamic State grow.
The group attracted recruits on the basis of slick advertising, and many of those recruits have now returned to Europe and set up sleeper cells. The level of preparedness of the cells is evident from the fact that it took not more than five days for them to launch a revenge attack after the capture of Abdeslam.
It seems that the terrorists have acquired the capability to launch devastating attacks on a regular basis in different cities of Europe. There are reports that London may be the next target. Also, the attacks may be launched against soft targets with the aim of causing as many casualties as possible.
The attackers in Brussels took the predictable course of targeting the softest targets any urban centre offers the transport system. Metro infrastructure can hardly be made fool-proof, and its targeting always produces spectacular results for the terrorists.
The attacks in Brussels and Paris will raise questions regarding inter-state intelligence cooperation, refugee policy, and eventually the about whole project of European integration. Many European countries have dealt in the past, though not effectively, with the problem of terrorism. The Irish Republican Army, the Italian Red Brigades, the German Baader Menhof group had limited capabilities and mostly avoided civilian casualties. But now terrorists are targeting civilians.
The Islamic State aims to repete the Spanish Scenario – the electoral defeat of politicians who favour military action against militants, as it happened with former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar following the 2004 Madrid bombings.
Also, the establishment of the Schengen zone should have also led to greater intelligence cooperation long ago but didn’t. Inter-agency cooperation is poor. Europol, the law enforcing agency of the EU, does a useful job in facilitating information and analysis but it has no powers for investigations, and works on a low budget.
It is doubtful if Europe can act like America after 9/11. The US quickly understood that the failure of different agencies to work together had been responsible for the catastrophic attacks. It revamped its entire security system. Today, the Homeland Security Department has succeeded in preventing serious terror attacks on American soil.
There is every likelihood that the Paris and Brussels attack will reignite anti-Muslim sentiments in Europe. It will also have an impact on Europe’s political future. The success of the anti-refugee party Alternative fur Deutschland in the German regional election has proved that Europe is facing a crisis of confidence and may slip into a new era of intolerance and nationalism.
In Finland, during the 2015 parliamentary poll, the ultra-Right Finns Party secured 17 per cent of the votes while the Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn gained seven per cent votes in Greece, an unprecedented number for a country that suffered havoc wrought by the Nazi regime. Indeed, the combination of economic stagnation, intense refugee flows and jihadi terror will be a game changer for European politics with the ultra-Right exploiting the events to gain power.
The debate over the UK breaking away from the EU (Brexit) will intensify. Though the British Government has maintained control over its borders, there is concern among the British public. A vote to exit the EU will intensify ethno-centrism across the continent and give the likes of Marine Le Pen a shot at winning the French Presidency in 2017.