The downward revision to the monsoon forecast — from ‘below normal’ to ‘deficient’ — has already sparked drought fears, pushing stock markets into a freefall and raising doubts about economic recovery. The benchmark BSE Sensex tanked over 1,000 points in the past two days, washing out over Rs 3 lakh crore in market capitalisation.
Besides, firms with significant exposure to agriculture and rural markets are fearing significant business losses.
While the agriculture sector is already passing through a bad phase, the rainfall deficiency may have multiplier adverse impact on manufacturing and services sectors, a composite gauge for which today recorded a seven-month low figure.
“In the agriculture sector, there would obviously be some losses if there are problems (of deficient rains). We have confidence and policies in place to ensure there is minimum damage to agriculture sector and overall economy,” Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh told reporters here.
The Minister said a new crop insurance policy will be brought in to protect farmers’ income, while the government will take steps to improve domestic supplies through imports to check the price of pulses, which are already high.
Singh said the government is ready with contingency plans for 580 districts and is in touch with state governments and agriculture research bodies to tackle the situation.
Power Minister Piyush Goyal also said that the contingency plans have been drawn up to meet any eventuality in case the deficient monsoon hits hydro power output.
“It’s a matter of concern that the monsoon is expected to be below normal, deficient. We are conscious that this will result in a fall in hydropower production and the demand will also increase… The Ministry of Power and the Ministry of Coal are seized of the situation,” Goyal said.
The minister, however, sought to allay concerns and said that adequate coal is available at every thermal plant in the country to meet any shortfall in hydro-power output.
The Met department has revised its rainfall forecast from 93 per cent to 88 per cent for this year, with north-west region of the country expected to be hit the most.
Last year, the country had received 12 per cent less rains, which hit production of grains, cotton and oilseeds.
According to the government’s estimate, total foodgrains production has declined to 251.12 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from a record production of 265.04 million tonnes in the previous year.
Due to poor monsoon, agriculture growth stood at 0.2 per cent in the 2014-15 fiscal. .
PTI