Omkar Dattatray
There is growing impression among the people and political parties that the exit polls are not exact polls and thus there are always false and incorrect .This impression about exit polls proved totally wrong in the recent exit polls in case of the assembly polls in the states of Maharashtra ,Jharkhand and the bye polls in the politically most significant state of Uttar Pradesh as the exit polls came true and dismantled the wrong notion about the exit polls and the soothsayers proved wrong.The poll results in the assembly elections in Maharashtra ,Jharkhand and the bye polls in UP proved exact as the results which came on 23rd November are very much exact and true .The Maharashtra, Jharkhand elections showed BJP regained the upper hand and are totally in accordance with the poll predictions given by various exit polls of different channels and organizations .Same happened in case of the bye polls in UP were SP chief Alkesh Yadav was roaring that all the by poll seats in the state will go into the kitty of Samajwadi party .But the actual election results in the bye polls in UP were as per the poll predictions of the exit polls and SP chief’s claims turned wrong as the BJP maintained its position and hold by winning six assembly seats. Same is true of the poll results of the recently held assembly elections of Maharashtra and Jharkhand .In Maharashtra the Mahayuti came to power thus defeating the Maha Vikas Agadi which was not able to gain power despite the neck to neck contest between Mahayuti comprising BJP ,Shiv Sena Shinde and other allies and the MVA. Assembly election results in Maharashtra ,and Jharkhand -where it lost has likely retained its 2019 vote share-show how the BJP keeps building its electoral and ideological dominance .Election season ended with two results going in two different directions but were as per the forecasts and exit polls .In Maharashtra ,the BJP has swept the election while in Jharkhand ,the JMM has managed to retain its hold and kept BJP at bay .It is noteworthy that in both states incumbents have held onto to their fortress -like in Haryana assembly polls earlier .However, while in Maharashtra ,the BJP’s two partners and the opposition will now face an existential crisis in Jharkhand ,despite its inability to wrest power ,the BJP has done reasonably well -it rightly retained its vote of 2019.Thus it shows that BJP has reasserted its upper hand in electoral politics .Some time ago ,the BJP was momentarily on the back foot .Haryana warned that BJP should not be written off .The election results of Maharashtra confirmed the warning and writing on the wall .The Lok Sabha election results had cut the BJP to size ,but its strength was still intact ,as was its ability to steer the terms of political discourse .Assembly elections in the last couple of months testify to this .Three issues might be taken into account in order to understand the outcome in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and connect it to Haryana and Jammu region of J&K .Following the setback in the Lok Sabha election ,the BJP seems to have made a conscious effort to insulate Prime Minister Modi from defeats .While Modi remains the mascot ,the emphasis on his rallies was carefully reduced .Rather than a shrill vote getter ,his potential role as PM is projected more prominently .Whether it was in Haryana or in Maharashtra ,the PM inaugurated a number of projects .This ensured that he is seen as the benefactor .The murky polemic was unleashed not by Modi but by others in the party .This nuanced transformation of Modi’s role in the BJP s latest electoral wars is a significant fallout of the Lok Sabha elections .This strategy showed that BJP protected Brand Modi from failures ,although his hold on the party continued as earlier victory is attributed always to Modi but he was saved from embarrassment of owning up to defeats .We should also know what led to the BJP’s win in Maharashtra .The three C”s helped BJP to win .This is a different Modi from the one we have seen since 2014.Even a cursory glance at the full=page advertisements splashed by the BJP showed that Modi is still the overarching image and big crowd puller and vote catcher .His itineraries before the announcement of election show that he steers the ”development plank” While getting swayed by the likes of Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma ,a significant proportion of voters in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand would have hint of Modi in making their choices .The second issue is the various schemes promised ,launched and implemented by the contesting parties in both the states .Indeed flagship schemes have always helped parties —incumbents in particular to acquire an edge among electorate .We have seen this since the launch of the employment scheme of the UPA -MNREGA .There is no doubt that the slew of schemes implemented by the state governments ,with particular emphasis on DBT both in Maharashtra ANS Jharkhand has helped win coalitions .The third issue which impacted the outcome of the polls in both the starts was that BJP brought shrill Hindutva to the centre stage .This is not new .But following its less than -satisfactory performance in April-May ,the party has emphasized the Hinduitva message in which this agenda is implemented in different states .When the BJP won Haryana ,much was said about its clever management of caste -based fault lines .In Maharashtra too ,it ensured through micro-management that the deep fissures on the question of Maratha reservation did not hurt it .However success in the polls in Maharashtra and good performance in Jharkhand can be attributed to BJP’s core agenda of Hindutva which it marketed in the polls .Yogi’s slogan of Bategay tou Katengay and eak Rahayagay tou Safe Rahayagay which found expression and endorsement in Modi’s electioneering and resulted into party regaining power in Maharashtra and its somewhat good performance in Jharkhand although BJP failed to gain power there is a different story .To counter radical Muslims love Jihad and vote Jihad by the consolidation of unity among the Hindu’s proved a nectar and it watered the growing prospects of the BJP in the two states .It can be said that emphasis on its core ideology of Hindutva worked wonders and it turned a vote catching device besides being a big crowed puller .Thus the assembly elections of the two states proved beyond doubt that Hindutva impacted the outcome of the polls in both the states .Any way the election results were on the expected lines and were as per the projections of the exit polls. In brief this time Exit polls were exact polls and the myth that exit polls are not exact polls proved wrong.
(The author is a columnist, social and KP activist).