Mehdi Sarvar
Jammu & Kashmir, on its way to assembly elections in near future, is expected to witness lot of surprising and politically awkward changes in the coming months. Setting right political equations and balancing them will definitely give rise to some unfaithful desertions, helpless disappointments and notorious and unholy alliances in near future. The present state of events that J&K has been enveloped with is only the beginning. Contrary to earlier elections this election is going to be a different one in the sense that the people who used to hate it, are eagerly waiting for it for various obvious reasons. In fact on this occasion people of J&K are definitely going to miss those, who tagged with the symbol of betrayal were silenced for their endeavour to take J&K out of hypocritical clutches and preventing its truth from getting hijacked to save its future, after they had entirely and thoroughly understood the genesis of this problem. Given the current political turbulence and vacuum prevailing here, it can be assumed that this election will not only see enhanced political activities and higher poling participation but law and order problems as well. In the backdrop of this, it is interesting to see J&K assuming a significant and determinant role in political landscape of India. The recent statement by BJP Yuva Morcha National President Tejasvi Surya’s at Lal Chowk that ‘Leaders who can lead the country will come from Kashmir,’ can be taken an indication. Even this can be gauged from the fact that two most senior leaders from two arch rival parties who have put daunting efforts continuously for five decades for their respective parties are struggling with their careers and have their fate sealed in J&K politics. One of these leaders happens to be Ghulam Nabi Azad who shall be remembered in political history of the country for making a dramatic novel exit from Congress some days back. The timing of this exit can be questioned for this is surely and certainly going to make crucial effects not only on the parties in question but others as well. This is also surprising given his cool, calm and undiplomatic nature. His disciplined and distinguished political career till now had earned him lot of respect in political circles. The leader who has almost worked on all leading posts: constitutional as well as organisational offered to him by congress, leaving this way has not been taken well by the party, even political pundits are terming it to be unnatural and manifestation of exploitation politics. But that is what makes politics-its political dynamics. After deserting his parent political organisation, Azad has said that he will be serving nation individually and independently. This event might be shrouded with many oblique and apparent objectives involved but the fact that no one can deny is that it is surely going to divide congress vote bank in the state and invite more trouble to already strife ridden party, thereby strengthening its rival quarters. It is also largely going to affect the whole political spectrum of J&K: from containing old giant NC to curbing newly emerging unit Apni Party. The other leader whom we are talking about is Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. He is experiencing the worst phase of his political career. At the peak of his career, removing him suddenly from a constitutional post without assigning him even any organisational level role is also seen as tip of a division in the party. The leader who has watered party ideology and played a significant role in strengthening its roots is at crossroads. The firebrand leader, who was the only prominent Muslim face in incumbent BJP government at centre, has almost been sent to a standoff-mode. Though he has mentioned his political career is not over yet and he shall continue to remain active in social arena. But for now on the political horizon there seems no role available for him at least in organisational level. The recent media speculations about nominating him for either president or vice-president have not materialized either. Now as per same media speculations there seems another possibility left, of making him LG or Governor of J&K or any other part of the country. While the former is sheer impossible, later cannot be available till elections are over at least in J&K. May be afterwards he is offered it in order to dump him only. There is no fault with this man for his sudden removal but it is timing, situation and fate that has played trick with him- to strategize party outlook to consolidate vote bank. This can be simply understood as a reflection of compulsive de-cluttering. Though these two political cases seem totally different but it won’t be wrong to say that these are well connected and have their origins in J&K politics. According to a well thought out plan which include delimitation process, migrant voting and innovative political interventions among others, BJP is leaving no stone unturned to interpolate its future government here with clear majority. This can be seen as part of well-planned strategy to modify and balance equations in political dynamics of J&K in particular and country in large. This has also come after the recent blasphemous remarks, in the entire history of Hindu civilisation spanning over thousands of years which can be regarded as a blot on India’s doctrine of tolerance, the driving force primarily responsible for its existence, growth and development and its ascension to one of the emerging world powers. In the background of these events, the recent statements from PM Narendra Modi about Muslims also assume huge significance. This sudden reconciliatory step has come only to balance the foreign policy after blasphemous events particularly in context to middle east that assumes significant place in India’s strategic geopolitical map and also to secure vote bank locally particularly at a place like J&K. This move is definitely going to help the party for now. But as far as 2024 general elections are concerned it will be a test for the party in maintains its efficacy withstanding internal and external factorial pressures. While Azad is going to majorly influence in Jammu, Naqvi too is not going to affect it in Kashmir. The former who has left the party in a hurry is a towering leader who was supposed to be among few candidates outside Gandhi family who could have been chosen party president, is assuming apparently a bigger role in political landscape here outside his parent party, the latter despite of being loyal and outspoken in nature and most suitable for an organisational role has been left almost side-lined and isolated by his own party leadership. This is surely very much interesting and appears ironical and astonishing. When looked through a political prism these two leaders can be seen as two opposite sides of a single trump card, the one assigned positive role and the other used in negative sense, this dichotomous nature of politics is indicative of a fault line in the party. There is an urgent need of an introspection for BJP in its cadres to realize the need and significance to maintain an equilibrium between interest based and value based politics- the sooner it realises the better it is for the party and the country as well.