Dear Editor,
In coming days, there is a flurry of festivals. Every year it starts from the month of August, which lasts till the end of December. That is, two quarters of the financial year are related to this time and these quarters can register good profits, if the per capita purchasing capacity and consumption capacity are at the highest level during this period. These days the economic development data has given a new positive energy to the elixir of independence. Now India has become the fifth largest economy in the world. England is in sixth place. Sure, it is a matter of pride for Indian. Now only Germany, Japan, China and America are ahead of us. It is also true that economic data only presents one side of the comparative basis; they do not give a complete picture. It has to be understood. England is equal to five percent of the population of India, that is, the total population of India is twenty times more than that of England. Yet it is a historic moment in India’s tireless efforts of the last seventy five years, when we find ourselves among the five largest economies of the world economic data. The second happiness was provided when the GDP figures for the first quarter of the current financial year came out. This rate stood at 13.5 percent during this period. However, this figure also gave rise to a debate. According to the estimates of the Reserve Bank of India, this rate should have been around 16.2 per cent. That is why it was said that even now perhaps the Indian economy has not come in the real mood of recovery after the corona epidemic. Remember, the first quarter of the last two financial years was very dire. Negative rate of twenty three percent in the first quarter of 2020-21.The impact of the third wave of the pandemic, which started in January last year, was seen on the GDP figures of that time. It is also worth mentioning in this aspect that even this economic data does not present a complete picture of the development of the society, because the ever-increasing figures of unemployment and inflation maintain a negative trend in this context. In the coming time, the main aspect of India’s economic prosperity at the global level will be the current financial year. In the initial days, for this year, many global agencies did not rate India’s economic rate estimated to be around nine percent. Later, due to the increased crude oil prices due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, it was estimated around seven to eight percent. The current financial year is also very important for India because during this time it is being seen continuously that United States is going through the problem of rising inflation, due to which the common man is engaged in controlling his purchasing power these days. These days the situation in China is also not looking very good. To a large extent, there is a hint of economic slowdown. The basis of China’s economy is mainly the construction and manufacturing sector. It has been seen for some time that the effect of the corona epidemic is still visible on the economic development of China. The financial year 2022-23 will become the mainstay of India’s overall economic growth only if the next three quarters maintain its high growth rate, so that the Indian economy can achieve an average growth rate of around eight percent at the end of the year. These days there is a flurry of festivals. Every year it starts from the month of August, which lasts till the end of December i.e., two quarters of the financial year are related to this time and these quarters can register good profits, if the per capita purchasing capacity and consumption capacity are at the highest level during this period. This festive season sees an increase in the profits of almost all companies every year, mainly auto, FMCG, electronics, garments, sweets and gold-silver purchases. Recently, in a survey of the purchasing power of consumers conducted by CMIE, it was found that in July, Indian investors and consumers increased their purchasing power and have expressed a lot of confidence in the capacity and the figures are showing that in the last four months, a growth rate of around 6.7 percent has been registered, which is a turnaround in the economy after the corona epidemic according to the growth rate of the Indian economy can be seen as a giveaway indicator. This growth rate in the last five months was attractive only in the month of February, when it recorded five per cent. After that, it is 3.7 per cent in March, 3 per cent in April, 0.8 percent in May and only one per cent. It was registered in the month of June. The interesting fact in this context is that the main support for this growth rate in July has come from the rural sector, which stood at 7.3 per cent during this period, while it was only 4.8 per cent in the urban area. The reason for this is clear. The unemployment rate is high in the urban area and the post-COVID economic strength has not yet come among the people, as the annual wage increase has been estimated around five to six percent during this period. The rural area became more efficient during this period because the monsoon is mid and till the month of September.It is maintaining its momentum well in South India, whose positive impact is visible on the agriculture sector. The government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the agriculture sector from four to eight per cent for monsoon-based Kharif crops. The MGNREGA figures are also explaining the rural economic development situation in a different way. In the month of July of the current financial year, about 2.04 crore villagers were dependent on MGNREGA, compared to 3.16 crore during the previous month. Availability of monsoon and other employment opportunities Due to this, in the month of July and beyond, the dependence of rural people on MGNREGA has reduced and other resources have become available to them for their economic life cycle, which has become a good basis of economic progress for the Indian economy. It is very important for a developing country like India to maintain a steady increase in the economic growth rate. We have come so far in this that now the only option is to keep our momentum going. Otherwise it has many adverse effects, including selling in the stock market by foreign investors. Now it is necessary that the government should control the rate of inflation, otherwise it may have an adverse effect on the purchasing power of the common person during the festive season and as a result of which the GDP figures may also decrease. According to global reports, for the last three months, the international crude oil prices have not seen the sharp rise it was in the months of February-March after the troubles started in Russia and Ukraine. But the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG are still high in the Indian domestic market. The opposite effect is being seen on all types of inflation, from food items to kitchen items and the cost of transportation is mainly included. If the government tries to control inflation at the domestic level, it is possible that the purchasing power of the Indian consumer will record its highest level in the coming festive days and economic growth will get a new impetus.
Vijay.