Rameshwar Singh Jamwal
The coming elections in Jammu and Kashmir are being watched by Kashmir watchers across the globe with consternation as it will point to the way the politics of Kashmir will lead to the politics of region. Well wishers of people of J and K also are equally concerned, for these elections will show whether J and K will continue to suffer at the hands of its exploiters or needs some change in its destiny. National Conference and People’s Democratic Party and some more having secessionist tendencies in the past have decided to contest but are also offering alibis for their participation that the elections are no solution to Kashmir problem but the solutions being offered by them are also devoid of any merit. The response of those willing to contest against all odds, so far is encouraging and if the security forces are able to control secessionists and terrorists and the Election Commission of India manages fair elections with wide participation, it will once again prove that people want peace and stability and not the moon being promised by some in Kashmir. This is also trying time for Pakistani establishment and if Pakistan’s civilian government has some courage and intent in improving ties with India, it must try to reign in the ISI and the Jehadi infrastructure from causing major mischief, as it will pave way for further smoothening of relations between the two nuclear armed neighbouring countries which had shown signs of leaving bitterness behind but was outmanoeuvered by its army which never wants improved ties between them.
Pakistan must have realised after recent border skirmishes that it is not in a position to raise the level of hostility with India at the moment. Its economic position is really precarious; its leadership is knocking at the doors of international financial institutions and economically strong countries for a bailout with less positive signals unless it assures to reform its own institutions with strong economic curbs on its defence spending .Even India can be ready with a bailout plan for Pakistan provided it agrees to abandon its neurotic ambition of destroying India, as it does not want it to be destabilised at the moment. America, striking with belligerence on its neck in frontier areas and the Jehadi monster within the country, still strong enough to destabilise country, are formidable issues confronting Pakistan. The change of heart of Barack Obama, after the beheadings of its citizens by ISIS terrorists, can further aggravate the situation as he has vowed to strike at the Al Qaeda and other Jehadi elements within Pakistan, who can be potential force multipliers for this increasing headache for world community and it is these forces which are preventing return of normalcy in Afghanistan. There are long term grim perspectives within Pakistan leaving it with little option but to buy peace in Kashmir even at the cost of its off repeated Kashmir policy.
The Kashmiri people must have understood by now that it is a different ball game now with the present Indian leadership and signals emanating from Pakistan appear to be confusing for the people of the State, but the fact remains that Pakistan will have to abandon its Kashmir policy for its own survival as a nation unless some mindless state actors within Pakistan try to do some spectacular act for diverting national attention but that will invite strong punitive action and costs will be heavy and in the long run, can lead to disintegration of Pakistan given its present economic and political status and the fact that political players have changed in New Delhi. Pakistani leadership seems to be sending signals which are not only provocative but also aimed and addressed to different constituencies as well, so far as its Kashmir policy is concerned. The secessionist elements in Kashmir Valley might have felt assured after the statement of Pakistan’s new Prime Minister that Pakistan will continue to fight for the cause of Kashmir till the issue is resolved as per wishes of people of Kashmir, but they must also try to see the writing on the wall. The present Indian Government has five years at its disposal and if they succeed in fulfilling some of their promises, it can be another five years more wait and by that time, many things would have changed permanently in Kashmir. No need of spelling much, you can read between the lines. The strong statements being made from across the border are in marked contrast to the earlier statements of presenting a façade of bonhomie and are being made at the behest of real power centre in Pakistan at the moment, its army and ISI perhaps are being made to assuage the feelings of frustration of hardline factions in Pak polity as well as those fighting on their behalf in
J and K. The earlier statements of reconciliatory note and moves to shift focus to economic issues had put careers of those who have strived and prospered on the miseries of people, in limbo, due to such policy shift. It had put a question mark on the fate of those trading in the name of Kashmir. But latest misadventures by Pak Army changed everything. For this, certain other aspects of Pakistan’s internal political dynamics have to taken into account.
Whatever, the present political dispensation in Pakistan at the moment says about Kashmir, it is clear that the they have realised that Kashmir obsession and the illusory world they have been led into by some Kashmiri leaders have destroyed Pakistan. It led to the breaking up of Pakistan, its present slide into anarchical conditions is due to Kashmir obsession and where the Jehadi monster it created to destroy India, finally gnawing at its own survival, the international rebuke and ridicule following its failure to contain such elements and the latest Pentagon report, all point to a dismal international situation for Pakistan and is oblivious to its leadership. It can no longer afford the game of brinkmanship on Kashmir with India whose economic stride has been noticed in the power echelons of Pakistan and the rest of world. They know that Pakistan too can progress only if it leaves the path of confrontation with India and this can be possible only if it distances itself from that leadership of Kashmir which is responsible for the present mess it has landed Pakistan into. But such situation is not of liking either for Pak Army or their cohorts in J and K. The politicians in Kashmir, especially those living in make believe world that the fate of Kashmir is intertwined with that of Pakistan due to its religious and geographical contiguity and that it will one day become part of Pakistan or India will be forced to leave it are living in make believe world. India can never afford to lose Kashmir and Pakistan can never afford to snatch Kashmir. The options of Hurriyat shown way are firmly out. But then again, the question will be, what the way out is for this never ending cycle of death and destruction in J and K. Is it the one being shown by PDP or that by NC or that likely to be projected by BJP, if it succeeds in changing political map of J and K. PDP led way is fraught with dangers, it will keep the secessionist feelings alive and kicking, NC way is unworkable and can be counter productive to the State’s progress. In my opinion, a wise and visionary leadership with no qualms about parochial issues, both internal and external, seems to be the only rational way at the moment and which the people of the state must also support.