The rising ocean temperatures are having an effect on how many tropical storms and hurricanes develop each year, researchers said.
“We’re seeing fewer hurricanes, but the ones we do see are more intense. When one comes, all hell can break loose,” said Professor Jim Elsner from the Florida State University.
Prior to this research, there had been some discussions among scientists about how warmer ocean temperatures affected the intensity of a hurricane.
Elsner and his former graduate student Namyoung Kang wanted to further explore that concept as well as the number of storms that occurred each year.
Hurricanes can form when ocean waters are 26 degrees Celsius or more. As the warm water evaporates, it provides the energy a storm needs to become a hurricane.
Higher temperatures mean higher levels of energy, which would ultimately affect wind speed, researchers said.
Specifically, Elsner and Kang projected that over the past 30 years, storm speeds have increased on average by 1.3 meters per second and there were 6.1 fewer storms than there would have been if land and water temperatures had remained constant.
“It’s basically a tradeoff between frequency and intensity,” Elsner said.
Elsner and Kang said the yearly temperatures can also be a good indicator of what is yet to come in a given storm season.
“In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur,” said Kang, now deputy director of the National Typhoon Centre in South Korea.
“In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones,” Kang added.
The research was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
PTI