K.V. Seetharamaiah
Speculation is rife that Eknath Shinde would be replaced by Ajit Pawar. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut has been fuelling the speculation more than anybody else.
The Assembly election in Maharashtra is about 15 months away. At this stage change of Chief Minister is not advisable. In the first place, there was no need for BJP to cede the post of Chief Minister to Eknath Shinde even though Shinde was responsible for dislodging the Uddhav Thackeray government.
As a token of gratitude BJP did not stake claim for Chief Ministership. There are three Chief Ministers who worked as ministers subsequently.
They are O. Pannerselvam in Tamil Nadu, Jagadeesh Shettar in Karnataka and now Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra. Generally no chief minister would be willing to work as minister after enjoying the post of chief minister.
Pannerselvam was very obedient to J. Jayalalithaa. When Jayalalithaa was to step down as Chief Minister, she anointed Pannerselvam to her place. Paneerselvam paved way to Jayalalithaa when she had conducive time to come back.
Jagadeesh Shettar was Karnataka Chief Minister more by chance than by choice. He was desperate to have any position and as such he accepted a ministerial position under B.S. Yediyurappa and Basavaraj Bommai subsequently.
As regards Devendra Fednavis, he was more willing to head the government than to be a Deputy Chief Minister (DCM). BJP high command persuaded him to accept the post of DCM to ensure the stability of the government till the next election is due in October 2024.
Jitan Ram Manjhi in Bihar was Chief Minister as a stop-gap arrangement when Nitish Kumar had resigned following poor showing in the 2014 election. But when Nitish Kumar wanted to stage a come-back, Manjhi refused to vacate seat for Kumar.
However, he was dislodged and Kumar became the Chief Minister. Shiv Sena (UBT) has been trying to create fissure in the Shinde government by floating a rumour that Shinde is going to be replaced by Ajit Pawar. The life of Maharashtra government was not under threat even before Ajit Pawar joined the government leaving Sharad Pawar camp.
Therefore there is no political compulsion to make Pawar the Chief Minister. There is need for BJP to maintain cordial relationship with both Shinde and Pawar.
Who should be the chief minister is the matter to be decided after the assembly election is over in case the combined BJP, Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and Pawar faction of NCP come back to power in 2024. While ideologically, both Shinde’s Sena and BJP are more or less identical, Pawar has come from a party that is totally opposed to the ideology of the BJP. NCP was offshoot of Congress.
The alignment of Pawar with BJP is not as assured as that of Shinde. Instead of Shinde tilling a lonely furrow, he would do well to join BJP along with his followers.
But for the present, BJP should not realize the dream of Shiv Sena (UBT). Shiv Sena (UBT) would be very happy if Shinde is replaced since he was the person responsible for the ouster of Uddhav Thackeray government.