Dr. Banarsi Lal
In many developing countries fertility rate is declining but even then population growth continues at an alarming rate. In 1804, world population was 1 billion; it was 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6billion in 1999, and 7 billion in 2013 and is 8.02 billion in 2023. India,China, United States, Indonesia and Pakistan are the world’s five largest countries in terms of population. According to the UN world population grows at a rate of 1.2 per cent which makes a net addition of 77 million people every year. Six countries account for half of those annual increment-India tops the list with 21 per cent, followed by China 12 per cent, Pakistan 5 per cent, Bangladesh, Nigeria and the United States with 4 per cent each. Following reasons explain why population matters.
4About 800 million people are malnourished in worldwide and this number can increase significantly.
4Water scarcity stems in many parts of the world due to increase in human demand. Worldwide water tables are dropping down.
4Pollution is causing many respiratory diseases in human beings.
4Farming lands are suffering from soil erosion and desertification.
4 The competition for resources is increasing day-by day.
4Human beings are rapidly spoiling the earth’s atmosphere.
4Wild habitats that shelter endangered plants and animals are giving way to human activities and needs.
4Lack of education in reproductive health is a factor in the upsurge of infectious diseases.
4By rapid population pressure migration pressures are aggravated.
4Civil conflict often emerges in societies where rapid population growth combines with environmental scarcity to undermine governments.
India was the first country in the world to launch a state sponsored population control programme in 1952.It was however met with much skepticism. After 1952,a sharp declines in death rates were not accompanied by a similar drop in birth rates. India has built-in populationmomentum because of its young age structure-one fifth of India’s population is between 15-19 years of age. Different regions of the country with different demographic features required a different treatment was another reason of its failure. India’s population growth rate depends on how effectively the four Indian states i.e. Uttar Pradesh,Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh implement the policies because these states constitute about 40 per cent of the country’s population growth. The fertility rate in these states is the highest. It has been observed that it has taken more time for the message like family planning to reach in these large agricultural and predominantly rural population states. It has been studied that fertility reduction began in the coastal areas of South India and then proceeded to spread inland. This was an advantage that the South had compared to the North. The Southern states have done better in providing family planning services. Population control programme has not been able to make inroads into all the pockets of the North Indian states as a result of which India’s population has grown by gigantic proportions and in 2000India touched 1 billion people mark. India has overtaken China in 2024 with a population of about 1.44 billion people i.e.17.78 per cent of the world’s population living on 2.4 per cent of the world’s land area.
The burgeoning pupulation has major implications for availability and sustainability of resources needed for people.People under the age of 25 account for more than 40 per cent in India.In this century the global population has increased threefold- while India’s population has increased five times in the same period. It can be mentioned that before independence India took 42 years to add 100 million. Since 1951 when the first census in India was conducted, about 600 million have been added to the population of India.The first 100 million was added in 12.5 years, the second 100 million in 9.3 years, the third 100 million in 6.4 years, the fifth and sixth 100 million in 5.8years. According to estimate of Sample Registration System of the Office of Registrar General of India,the population of India is increasing at 15.5 million per year.15.5 million addition in existing population every year requires the opening of 66,000 new primary schools annually, creating 30 lakh new non-agricultural jobs every year and accommodating 50 lakh additional labourers in the agro-sector. No doubt, China has a different political system which can impose the one-child policy, but its success cannot entirely be attributed to the compulsion factor. China has certainly been able to educate its people on the importance of having a small family and has offered lucrative financial aid to small families. It reduced its infant mortality rate to 8.16 per 1000, in comparison to 25 per 1000 in India.It has achieved almost 100 per cent literacy thereby making its people to understand the benefits of small family. In India much success of population control programmes have been achieved in Kerala where the literacy rate is the highest and where women enjoy better status as compared to other states. Rampant illiteracy among the majority of population has failed to push forward the message of family planning programmes in India. There is need to aware the rural masses on problems associated with large families and benefits of small families. A metamorphosis is needed in the attitude of people.
The National Population Commission was constituted on May11, 2000, the day when India crossed the one billion mark. The commission is optimistic that population of India would be stabilized by 2045.Even if the goal is achieved, how we will meet the basic needs of people? The population growth rate in India has slowed down by 0.92 per cent wheras that of China’s growth rate of -0.3 per cent. India is one of the most densely populated nations in the world. Its population growth is much higher than many countries. There is gap between rich and poor and the next biggest social problem before the Indians would be the battle between the haves and have-nots.Higher rural population is migrating to towns and cities which overpopulate the urban centers resulting in growing number of slums and unavailability of housing, medical and sanitation facilities. It is estimated that world’s urban population would rise to 5 billion by 2030 which was around 3 billion in 2003.Tokyo, the world’s most populous city with 37 million was projected to still be the largest followed by the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi. India should make population control a top priority because all the fruits of development are lost due to increase in population which lowers per capita needs of the people and reduces growth benefits per head. There is an urgent need for higher quality services in reproductive health and family planning together with supporting measures. Government alone cannot achieve these ambitious goals. People, NGOs, panchayats and private sector participation is also important.
(The writer is Chief Scientist and Head of KVK Reasi SKUAST).
