Omkar Dattatray
The votes are stacked in the EVM’s and in a few days and to be specific on 8th of October 2024 that is during the annual festival of Navratra ,the outcome of the crucial and historical assembly elections will be out .It is on the same date which will be the momentous occasion politically that it will be almost clear which combination of parties or which alliance will be in a position to form a coalition government. There has been a pre-poll alliance between the NC and Congress and the two parties had fought polls jointly .However there is every scope and possibility of a post poll alliance as well to muster the majority support to form a coalition government .As far a political scenario of the Jammu and Kashmir is concerned ,at the end of the counting of votes ,no single party will get the majority to form a government at its own .Thus this time there is utmost need and necessity of coalition politics as coalition era has come to stay in India and J&K is no exception to this reality and thus all indications are there that at the end of the day a coalition government is hundred percent possibility .In the murkier field of politics very thing is a possibility .There are strange bedfellows in politics and as they say everything is fair in politics ,love and war and thus there can emerge any equation ,permutation and combination in J&K politics. In politics it is not uncommon to see that snakes marry rates and bulls chase lizard’s .Thus anything can happen in politics and because of this politicians are different genre from statesmen. There are speculation a buzz in political circles that something is going on between two parties of NC and BJP which though are north pole and south pole ,but in politics the opposite poles can meet .Even there are gossips in public circles that something is being cooked behind curtains between the BJP and NC .Some opine that back channels diplomacy and talks are on between NC and BJP and at the end of political churning a coalition arrangement between the NC and BJP may be a possibility .When BJP and PDP has formed a coalition government in 2015,there seems no wrong in coming closer of BJP and NC and the two parties which were opposite to each other to cobble a coalition government .It follows that there is possibility of a post poll alliance between the NC and BJP to form a coalition government .In fact J&K government formation may come down to post-poll jockeying .Jammu is where BJP is formidable while Congress -NC alliance has a mere even geographic footprint .Independents are the wild card in this election ,which may not throw up a clear winner on counting day .While the BJP has contested independently ,the Congress has a pre-poll alliance with the NC ,making it a formidable force .Regional parties ,including NC and PDP ,along with other new political outfits ,were largely invisible in Jammu’s electoral scene .Since 2014,the BJP has significantly increased its presence in Jammu ,a stark contrast to its single -seat win in 2002.In 2014 elections ,the party won 19 out of 24 assembly seats .Even in recent Lok Sabha polls ,the BJP reinforced its dominance in Jammu by winning both seats of the Jammu and Udhampur constituencies .Analysts believe that BJP’s success in Hindu-majority region of Jammu can be attributed to Prime Minister Narender Modi’s influence and the party’s pro-Hindu policies and stance .It may continue in 2024 JK polls and the BJP will emerge a larger party in Jammu region giving it the handle to attract the independents which are in large numbers in this election and the BJP may attract its bête noire the NC to its side and the two parties will emerge larger parties in these elections and may form a coalition government which will care for the people and try to address the main issues and concerns of the people of the UT .In fact since BJP could gain an advantage from the 2022 delimitation exercise ,which raised the number of assembly seats in J&K from 83 to 90.Of the seven additional seats ,six were allocated to Jammu and only one to Kashmir .The voting rights granted this year by the government to 30,000 families of West Pakistan Refugees-WPR and those displaced by the 1965 Indo-Pak war in Jammu region -primarily from the Hindu community as well the vote to Valmiki community and Gurkhas will also benefit BJP as all these groups of people have voted for the saffron party .The introduction of nine reserved seats in J&K for Scheduled Tribes ,coupled with new political parties seen as proxies of the BJP and the independent candidates ,could definitely enhance the BJP’s chances of forming a coalition government similar to their success in 2014.Based on the election mood and past trends in J&K ,the outcome according to analysts could be either be a hung assembly or a coalition government. Traditionally NC is expected to get more seats in Kashmir region as against the BJP getting more seats in Jammu region .At the end no party will get a majority of seats on its own and therefore coalition is the foregone conclusion .As the electoral outcomes will emerge at the end of counting of votes ,it seems that NC and BJP may emerge the two larger parties from Kashmir and Jammu regions respectively and in that case a post-poll alliance may be entered between the NC and BJP and they may form a coalition or alliance government in accordance with the fractured mandate of J&K people. Meanwhile the stage is set for the nomination of 5MLA’s from KP community and POJK refugees and the LG will nominate these MLA’s before the government formation .Thus the nominated five MLA’s will support BJP coalition in government formation .The Congress ,NC and PDP opposes the move to nominate MLA’s before government formation as it will tilt the balance of power in favor of BJP .Political analysts opine that if NC will align with BJP ,it will benefit the gullible people of the mountainous UT as the Modi government will give generous funds and allocations to Jammu and Kashmir and it will increase the tempo of development in J&K and it will definitely benefit the people of Jammu and Kashmir .There are speculations going in the public that some informal talks are going between the regional mainstream party NC and the national party BJP about the possibility of alliance between the two parties to stitch a coalition arrangement in Jammu and Kashmir to give the alienated people a responsive and transparent government which will care for the interests of the people.NC was an alliance partner in Vajpayee’s NDA government and so there is no harm in NC and BJP entering into post -poll alliance to form a coalition government .Let the NC and BJP experiment a coalition government so as to keep away the unwanted governor Raj which is in no way in the interest of people as people’s democratic government is the best alternative and let the political parties here learn the art of coalition government and give one to the UT so that J&K is saved from again falling in the ditch of governor’s or LG’s rule.
(The writer is a columnist,social and KP activist)
