Deepak Sinha
Whether our Government will openly admit it or not, but the recently attempted abortive coup in Turkey must surely have come as a shock and forced a reality check here. It is but natural, for the political establishment, to wonder if such a turn of events can ever find resonance within our forces as well. The Turkish Armed Forces are the second largest within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), leaving aside the US.
They have a professional military – secular, well-led, trained and equipped. They do, however, have a history of intervention against the elected representatives on more than one occasion, given that modern Turkey, as we know, owes its birth to General Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The details of the present unsuccessful coup are scant and speculation abounds, regarding its motives and reasons for failure.
The manner in which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his pro-Islamist party responded has raised questions. If the coup was organised to prevent the secular fabric, binding the country, from being subverted, as some suggest, then its abject failure is a cause for concern. It raises grave doubts about the perceived secular outlook of the rank and file of the Armed Forces. Because, despite supporters of the President taking to the streets, the forces mobilised should have been able to easily suppress them and the opposing police forces as well, unless elements sympathetic to the Islamist cause within the forces sabotaged its implementation. In that case Nato and the West have much to worry about.
In our context, analysists, for differing reasons, have arrived at the conclusion that our Armed Forces will never indulge in such treachery. There is a school of thought that believes that the Armed Forces are highly professional, extremely well disciplined, rooted in the ethos and traditions imbibed from our British masters that clearly emphasised its apolitical nature and total subservience to its master.
Others like Steven Wilkinson, who in his book, Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence, deals with this subject, and questions such a premise, points to the Pakistan Army which comes from the same lineage and yet has a long history of intervention in domestic politics. He is of the opinion that our military has been defanged and “coup proofed” by a series of measures put in place by the bureaucracy and its political masters. These include a steep decline in its precedence and perks, diversifying its ethnic composition and giving overriding powers to the civilian bureaucracy within the Ministry of Defence in every aspect of military functioning, including selection of senior ranks.
In addition, large paramilitary forces under the Union Home Ministry have also been formed to “ring fence” the military and for use as countervailing forces against it, if required. Finally, the lure of post-retirement crumbs, such as an ambassadorship, governorship or membership of the Armed Forces Tribunal has ensured that the senior hierarchy remains quiet and continues to toe the Government line.
The truth is that both these lines of thinking have merit, though one must add that comparisons to the Pakistan Army have little relevance given the divergent growth profiles of both Armies following independence. In addition, one cannot lose sight of the fact that over the years, the military, especially its leadership, have been keen votaries of our democratic process as they are fully cognizant that no military has the ability to run a country successfully. Their wisdom in this regard must be applauded and the fact that they have done much to keep our democracy stable and functional must be given due credit. This is despite the utter lack of governance, near absence of political leadership, continued loot of treasury by crony capitalists and an almost non-existent criminal justice system over decades.
Having said that, one must also point out that neither traditions nor ethos, however deeply embedded, will ever be a reason enough to stop military intervention. Also to believe that any military can either be totally “ring fenced” or “coup proofed” is to live in cloud cuckoo land. The East India Company made just that mistake in 1857 with disastrous consequences for itself and those who served it. While we may prefer to call it our First War of independence, the spark that led to the conflagration was an angry Army, extremely upset at the manner of its treatment that felt slighted by Company officials and its own officers.
We need to face the truth head on that the military is simmering for a number of reasons, too well known to bear repetition. That the Government could not be bothered to call the Service Chiefs and extend them the courtesy of explaining the reasons for their objections against the treatment of the military by the 7th Central Pay Commission have been summarily rejected, speaks volumes of the arrogance of those in power. If this were not enough, the Armed Forces continue to be hampered by serious shortages in manpower and critical equipment. There are also confronted by serious differences within the officer corps and indications exist that all is not well in officer-man relationships that are critical if the military is to perform.
Angry men with guns are dangerous and the Government would do well to remember that. As well as the fact that there are three Army divisons deployed in the precincts of our capital. The last time there was some doubt that the then Army Chief, Gen VK Singh, allegedly moved troops without orders, reportedly there was panic within the Cabinet and the Defence Secretary was recalled from a foreign engagement. More telling was the fact that the Defence Minister was unable to summon up courage to personally speak to the Chief and get an update. Now we don’t really want that do we? The Government needs to take urgent corrective measures to assuage this growing anger. The fact of the matter is very simple, as the sage Chanakya said over 2,000 years ago, which remains relevant even today, “While the Magadha citizenry endeavours to make the State prosper and flourish, the Mauryan soldier guarantees that the State continues to exist!” If those who govern do not give the military their rightful dues and continue to treat them with contempt, they are very likely to reap what they sow.That, would indeed be a tragedy for each of us and the country.
(The writer is a military veteran and consultant with the Observer Research Foundation)
