Satwant Singh Rissam
Once again the Indian democracy witnessed ‘political Holi’ when colours like saffron, green, red etc. were in air. These all colours reflected the love of voters and supporters with one or another political party of India. Interestingly, this ‘political Holi’ started as soon as results of 2016 Assembly election were declared few days back. These post-success celebrations were must for all parties, who emerged victorious, as they all fought against the tough political winds. These victorious parties included Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and Left-Front who all did well in one each state where these Assembly elections were held. Whereas Congress, celebrated in a very low manner as it won only in Puducherry and in remaining all states there wasn’t much to celebrate politically. Results of 2014 general elections in India brought out a political situation in which things appeared to go all in favour of BJP in near future in country. But as we know that, ‘in politics we cannot write obituaries’; many other parties too have done well since last two years.
2016 Assembly results in Assam have given BJP a very big reason to celebrate, as BJP has got first biggest political mandate in north east. The results in Assam show that people were tired of Congress rule for last 15 years. For BJP it was a very crucial election as they have learnt a lot after losing in Delhi and Bihar elections. Importance of Assam for BJP can be judged clearly as after results, the BJP declared that they have laid foundation for 2019 general elections of India. However, this statement was digested by none of opposition parties in India as they believed that winning only one state cannot lead to good results in 2019. Supporting it is the reality that out of Assam, BJP has only won five seats out of more than 600 seats at four places where elections were held. On the contrary, for BJP supporters result was not about numbers but ‘politics of development’ under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Adding colour to this ‘political Holi’ is the victory of Mamta Banerjee led Trinamool Congress which has won elections in West Bengal for continuously second time in a row. A lot was said and believed to happen this time in West Bengal but Mamta Banerjee proved all wrong with thumping majority her party got. Efforts were made by Left-Front and Congress party by forming a pre-election alliance to stop the march of Mamta Banerjee but they failed in this decisive election. BJP too was left far behind in the numbers tally in West Bengal in spite of whirlwind tour in the state by all senior leaders of BJP.
The winds of celebration are blowing in southern part of India also as AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha defeated M Karunanidhi led DMK-Congress alliance. These Assembly elections brought out many record making results. AIADMK too made a record by winning second time in a row. This trend was never witnessed in the state of Tamil Nadu after 1980’s. Many theories are coming out as a reason for the victory of AIADMK. For some, it was the impact of the manifesto of AIADMK which contained a long list of freebies. While for others, the alliance partners DMK-Congress made certain strategic mistakes which caused them vote loss. Moreover, in Tamil Nadu also, BJP couldn’t bring in festivity for them even after hectic efforts. The state of Kerala, witnessed once again the surge of Left-Front which faced rout in West Bengal, at the hands of Trinamool Congress just five years back. Even 2014 general elections results didn’t bring anything to rejoice for Left-Front. So nothing much and nothing too soon was expected for Left-Front in their ongoing worst times. But it is said that because of ‘anti-labour policies’ and ‘no-economy revival’ by Narendra Modi led Central Govt has given Left-Front a chance to reorganise its cadre. Hence, they got a chance to form government in Kerala.
In total we can see that after these elections two regional parties have risen tremendously. Consequently, these Assembly results have produced two new situations in Indian political setup. Firstly, it created opportunity for all parties in the year 2016 and secondly, it gave all parties a target for 2019. Now after the scrutiny of the prevailing political structure a new picture appears in the country. These results are opportunity giving event of 2016 for all victorious party, as they now feel more strengthened in the prevailing Indian political arrangement. This strength has made all these parties to go in brain-storming mode and all of them now have targets for 2019. The target is to win seats in general elections of 2019 in India and for it all parties have set their eyes. In present political situation, Trinamool Congress and AIADMK can turn out to be king-makers of 2019 elections. Furthermore, Assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are due in 2017. If things don’t go as planned for BJP and Congress in these states then more contenders can join this list of king-makers of 2019. In addition to it, voices are already making rounds for forming a third front or grand alliance for 2019 elections in country against NDA. Parties like Congress, JD (U), RJD, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, BJD and any non-NDA party who wins Uttar Pradesh and Punjab can be part of this alliance. If this political scene sets in motion then a new political picture will be made in the country. BJP because of this combination may have to re-channelise their plans and energy. This rising opposition within country can even bring out a new face in 2019 because in politics no failure is permanent.
